World Cup 2010: Netherlands vs. Slovakia

History: The Dutch qualified for six previous World Cups in the modern era. They reached two finals, three semifinals and the second round each time. Czechoslovakia qualified for six World Cups, making the finals once and the quarterfinals once. This is Slovakia’s first independent campaign.

Form: Slovakia were dismal to start, drawing New Zealand and losing 2-0 to Paraguay. They regrouped for the final match, upsetting Italy 3-2 to advance. The Dutch were dull but effective, dispatching Denmark 2-0, Japan 1-0 and Cameroon 2-1.

Matchup: Holland have not been the high-flying team their 10 goals in the last two friendlies led us to expect. Instead of Robben and Elia going bonkers down the wing, Van Marwijk has fielded a functional formation with Van der Vaart and Kuyt. They have played narrowly, kept the pace slow and controlled the game, relying on Mark van Bommel’s ball-winning and flashes of innovation from their talent. It has worked.  Though, with Robben in the lineup, they may expand their game.

Robert Vittek was excellent against Italy. He scored a brace. His ball-holding and linkup play were superb. He’s the reason Slovakia are still here. He’s also not very good. He did not score in nine qualifiers for Slovakia. It is hard to see him summoning that inspiration again. The Slovakia that managed three shots on target in the first two matches, was negative, conceded goals and had sloppy buildup play is the more probable combatant.

This match should play out like the Dutch group games. They dominate possession and batter repeatedly against a team set to defend and counterattack. For Slovakia to upset Holland, they need Marek Hamsik to finally step forward and to provide dynamism and linkup play through the middle. With slow fullbacks, the Dutch are vulnerable to quick attacks down the wings.

Booking will be a concern for the Dutch. Six players – De Jong, Van Persie, Van der Wiel, Kuyt, Van der Vaart and Van Bronckhorst – are a yellow card away from suspension for the potential quarterfinal matchup with Brazil. The referee is meticulous Spaniard Alberto Undiano, who distributed nine yellow cards in the Germany-Serbia match, including two to Miroslav Klose.

Prediction: Another effective, but uninspiring Dutch 2-0 win.

[Photo via Icon]