LeBron's Decision Delivers Huge Rating, Cleveland Plain-Dealer Delivers Best Newspaper Cover
By Jason McIntyre
LeBron’s decision was a business success. It registered a whopping 7.3 TV rating. Sure, it was panned by media critics (here’s one; there will be another post decided to the show) and a couple NBA coaches, but let’s be honest – the Heat are loaded (Vegas has tabbed Miami title favorites) and this move will do wonders for the popularity of the NBA (because coast-to-coast, everyone hates the league’s best player, LeBronedict Arnold).
But did LeBron cost himself $150 million?
"But James may also have sullied his reputation among more neutral observers for the self-important and humorless way that he came to his decision, including a one-hour special on ESPN that was part newscast and part infomercial. Brett Favre saw his Q rating dip by 41 percent — from 44 to 26 — following his drawn out “retirement” process in 2008-09, which might be the most salient recent comparison. Suppose that, had he stayed in Cleveland, James could expect to continue to earn $28 million per year in endorsement revenues for the next 20 years (including significant money after retirement, as is common for superstar athletes). Discounted at a rate of 10 percent per year, that income stream has a present value of $366 million to James. If an athlete’s endorsement earnings are proportional to his positive Q rating, and James suffers the same 41 percent penalty that Favre did between 2008 and 2009, he will have reduced his earning potential by $150 million."
And if the Heat do wind up getting Mike Miller for 5 years and $30 million, LeBron’s salary next year will even shrink more (Chris Broussard was on ESPN this morning saying the Big 3 could end up taking $14 million to free up room to secure role players). Miami found a taker for Michael Beasley’s $4.9 million salary – the Minnesota Timberwolves, who foolishly took another small forward after drafting one (Wesley Johnson) and trading for one (Martell Webster, who can also playing SG).
[Aside: We’ll never get the Timberwolves and David Kahn. Minnesota was skittish of drafting DeMarcus Cousins because he was deemed “risky” based on his attitude. Yet they trade for Beasley, a guy who was in rehab last summer? Minnesota is so terribly clueless.]
But back to LeBron.
1) This move has removed any shot of LeBron ever being the GOAT. Maybe this doesn’t matter to him, who knows. LeBron will get his rings, but forget any comparisons to Jordan. We’ll never make one again. LeBron has made it clear he can’t win a title on his own, and he needs help from SuperFriends to pull it off. (Please do not interject Magic and Bird into this discussion – those guys were drafted to the Lakers and Celtics and didn’t get to “pick” their own future like LeBron did.)
2) The bar has been raised – one title in South Beach will not be considered a success. Will two be sufficient? When you can get three of the Top 20 players in the league – all in their prime – on the same team, you probably need 3+ titles to make that matter.
3) As everyone is quick to point out, Chicago is talented and young. Orlando is considerably deeper. Boston, despite its age, still has a Top 4 team in the East (and the Knicks and Wizards seem like they’re trending upward). Out West, the Thunder are an up-and-coming team that spends wisely, And the Lakers still have the Kobe-Bynum-Gasol trio. Great time to be an NBA fan.