World Cup 2010 Final: Netherlands vs. Spain
By Ty Duffy
Netherlands: Dutch soccer traditionally focuses on individuals, but this team has won collectively. They have had moments of individual flourish, but their tough, effective defensive unit has been the basis for their success. If the Netherlands win, the nation known for Cruyff, Van Basten and Bergkamp would be led to the pinnacle by Dirk Kuyt and Mark Van Bommel.
Holland had the advantage of watching Germany defend deeply, allowing the Spanish to hold the ball, patiently pick them apart and suffocate them when they tried to counterattack. The Dutch should approach the match differently.
Expect the Netherlands to “defend from the front” like Paraguay, with Sneijder and Robben pressing high up the pitch in more defensive roles than normal. Van Bommel and Nigel de Jong should actively try to disrupt Barcelona’s midfield. Fair play is estimable, but winning is more important. Van Bommel must be his mad self and “Van Bommel” the Spanish midfielders to give the Dutch a chance. He must use cleats, elbows and shoulders and leave no nimble passing artist unscathed. The international outcry over his persistent fouling may hinder him though. Don’t expect Howard Webb to give him the carte blanche he had in previous matches.
Look for Kuyt and Robben to alternate wings. Robben is more lethal cutting in from the right, but on the left he can pin back Ramos, narrowing Spain’s attack and making them far more manageable to defend. Kuyt dropping back from the left will also be key, to protect Gio Van Bronckhorst from speedy attacks down the wing.
The most important element for beating Spain may be confidence. The Dutch have never lost since Van Marjwik took over and have never dropped points in a competitive match. They were not brilliant against Brail, but they stayed poised, kept pushing and capitalized on a bit of luck. A similarly resilient effort could see them see off the Spanish.
Stat in Holland’s Favor: Goal differential. The Dutch (+7) have an advantage over Spain (+5). The team with the better goal difference entering the final has won five of the past six World Cup Finals. The sixth was in 2002. Germany (+13) lost to Brazil (+12), inflated their margin with an 8-0 group stage win over Saudi Arabia.
Barcelona’s distinctive, flowing style came over from the Low Countries with Total Football mastermind Rinus Michels in the early 1970s. Nine of Barcelona’s 20 La Liga titles have been won under Dutch management. The four longest tenured managers in Barcelona History – Michels, Cruyff, Van Gaal and Rijkaard – are all Dutch. Current manager Pep Guardiola played under Cruyff and coached under Rijkaard. By emulating Barcelona, Spain play a purer form of Dutch soccer than the Dutch. This may explain why Cruyff will have “intense joy” if they win.
Spain have asserted their superiority in South Africa with their “tiki-taka” style, short precise passing orchestrated in the middle by Xavi. It can almost be construed as a defensive tactic. They smother the ball and keep play in the opposing end. When teams do get the ball, Spain has the pinned back, closes space and presses relentlessly. The strategy worked to perfection against Germany.
The Spanish should be worried, however, that their dominance has not translated into goals. They have scored only six in six matches, the fewest of any team to ever make the World Cup final. Though clearly worthier of a win, the decisive goal against the Germans came from a set piece.
One factor is Fernando Torres. When he was on form he gave Spain a route one outlet for direct balls over the top. The threat during Euro 2008 forced teams to drop back and created space for the midfield. With only one way to play this time around, teams can defend tightly and narrowly around the goal. Considering the talent Spain throws at teams, the defenders have been successful.
Spain’s biggest advantage over the Netherlands may be in defense. While Stekelenburg has been shaky his past couple outings, Iker Casillas has become progressively imperious. Puyol and Pique are the best center-half pairing in the world. Ramos and Capdevilla are solid fullbacks. Their back four is an asset, while the Netherlands’ is average at best and slow.
Stat in Spain’s Favor: Rest, or lack of it. In the six finals where one team has had an extra day of rest, the team with the fewest days off has won five of them. The exception was Italy in 2006, who beat France on penalties.
Prediction: Conventional wisdom favors Spain, correctly. They are the better team, but they are not invulnerable. The match should be close. Spain should let Holland hang around. If the Netherlands can press, rattle Spain and convert their chances, they can beat them. I think this ends up 1-1 with Spain winning on penalties.
[Dutch Photos via Icon, Spain Photos via Getty]