Fantasy Football Buy-Lows, Week 2

The key is to try to evaluate situations where fluke performance in week 1 are more likely to regress to where that player was originally projected before the season.  Wide Receiver is the position where there are more up and down performances that do not necessarily indicate a larger trend, so look for receivers who were drafted as starters who did not perform as such in week 1.  Running backs are more dependent on team situation, so if a bad start is indicative of a bad offensive line, or if the player is on the decline physically, you need to watch out.  Quarterback can also be situation dependent from game to game, and is also high profile enough where people overreact.

All that said, here are my “buy lows”  after week 1:

Quarterback:  Kevin Kolb. We don’t have a history on Kolb yet, so people are likely to overreact quickly here.  I think the fantasy market had him priced correctly as a low end QB1/high end QB2 based on his supporting cast and situation.  He gets to throw to DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek, and for various reasons, has a coach that wants him to succeed.  He’s going to be out this week, so you can probably wait, but I think picking up Kolb for pennies on the dollar is a big time play here, particularly if you can pair him with another good QB in the Cutler/Palmer range for a platoon.

Running Back: C.J. Spiller. Fantasy football owner emotions run high when it comes to rookie running backs.  They draft them with dreams of having the next breakout star, but then react rashly when things don’t fit that vision immediately.  Spiller certainly had a rough start, but I think it just presents a prime opportunity for late season success for the savvy owner.  Spiller’s start of 7 rushes for 11 yards and 4 receptions for 8 yards is not even the worst start for a Top 10 drafted rookie.  I found one where the guy started his career by rushing for zero yards on 8 carries, and had 1 catch for -4.  After five weeks, that highly touted rookie had 221 yards from scrimmage, was averaging 3.0 yards per carry, and 1.5 yards per catch, and had scored zero touchdowns.  That rookie was Walter Payton.  I’m not saying that Spiller is going to be Walter Payton by any means, but just like Payton as a rookie, Spiller is playing for a team with poor quarterback play that will lead to some boom or bust results.  If you can pull the trade, Spiller can still be a play based on matchup, and is the kind of move that could win a championship in the last few weeks if he gets hot late.

I also like Steven Jackson as a value play based on his relative lack of touches in week 1 as Bradford threw it a ton, and the news of his knee MRI, which will likely cause most to get squeamish.  I see a situation where there is improved quarterback play and where the team will be better offensively in 2009, which will generate more opportunities for Jackson in the future.  We already know what he can do on a really bad team, and he could be a boom if Bradford plays as well as he flashed in week 1.

Wide Receiver:  Michael Crabtree.  Crabtree was going in about WR20 range in drafts before, but I think many are already souring on him after a 1 catch week against Seattle.  Despite holding out for the first five games last year, he never had fewer than 3 catches in a single game, so the week 1 performance was the worst of his young career.  His quarterback during that time was Alex Smith, of course, so I’m not sure why people are freaking out here.  If you liked Crabtree before, I think his slow start just gives you an opportunity to step up if people are dropping him to the WR35 range. 

Percy Harvin falls in the same boat.  Yeah, he had a bad first week as he and Favre struggled to get on the same page, but the situation is still as favorable as before for him to succeed longterm.

Calvin Johnson was a tad overpriced as a top 5 receiver at drafts, but the news of Stafford being out may actually drive his price down to where he becomes a pickup.  If you can package a WR2 with another marginal starter, it may be worth the move.

I doubt anyone is overreacting to Andre Johnson‘s 3 catch day, but maybe they will be enticed with another top receiver plus a starter at another position, and you can still grab the best receiver in the game.

[Photo via Getty]