NFL Week 2 Picks, for Entertainment Purposes Only
By Jason Lisk
GAMES I LIKE
1. Washington +3 vs. Houston. The master faces the pupil here, and I am taking Shanahan getting points at home. The Texans are coming off an emotional victory against the Colts, capturing their second win ever over Indianapolis, and now are switching roles from home underdog to road favorite, at a place they have not played since David Carr was a rookie. The Texans didn’t use the pass much as they controlled the clock, but they weren’t real sharp when they did pass. This has all the smell of a letdown game.
2. Baltimore -2.5 at Cincinnati. The line has moved this week in favor of Baltimore heavily, as it opened as a pickem. I still like getting Baltimore under a field goal here, as I think they are the superior team and one of the AFC favorites, and these types of games (divisional games against similar climate opponents)have shown a reduced home field advantage. In this particular series over the last seven years, the Ravens are +1 in point differential in games played in Baltimore, and also +1 in games played in Cincy.
3. Buffalo +13 at Green Bay. In a game sandwiched between the Philadelphia win and a Monday night game against the rival Bears, I like getting 13 points with a team that has a very good passing defense. Now if I can just get Gailey to not take a safety to blow the cover late.
4. Miami +6 at Minnesota. I need to see more out of the Minnesota passing game before I go away from a relatively large line like this. While the Saints avoided the rush early against the Williams Wall, when they went to it late, they had success. I’ll be interested in seeing if the Wildcat can get going.
5. Cleveland -3 vs. Kansas City. It pains me to put this one on here, but the Chiefs passing game was dreadful on Monday night, and going on the road when you cannot pass is not a good recipe to success. That Monday night game was an emotional opener, but it did not end until late and now the Chiefs have to turn around and travel on a short week.
GAMES I LEAN
6. Pittsburgh +5.5 at Tennessee. I’m not quite as confident as last week when I made Pittsburgh a play, but I still think the Steelers are being undervalued without Roethlisberger, as they played great defensively, and even though Dixon had an uneven performance in the opener, averaged 9.1 yards per attempt.
7. San Francisco +6 vs. New Orleans. San Francisco is bickering and imploding after a week 1 debacle at Seattle. New Orleans is riding high on a Super Bowl buzz and an opening victory over Minnesota. I’m either going to be crazy or crazy like a fox with this pick.
8. Denver -3.5 vs. Seattle. John Elway is going to hit Vance Johnson with a late strike to send Dave Krieg, Steve Largent and company home with a loss in this classic AFC West shootout.
9. New York Jets +3 vs. New England. Yes, the Jets got absolutely nothing offensively and the quarterback turned in the type of performance that would suggest he might be living in his parents’ basement in a decade. Still, despite all that, they lost by a single point to a major contender in the AFC. The Patriots had owned games in the old Meadowlands, but this is their first visit to this stadium. The Jets may not have a stronger home field advantage against close proximity New England than in this game.
10. Philadelphia -6.5 at Detroit. Detroit played well in making a goal line stand, and should have won last week’s game, but they still gave up a lot of yards. The Eagles are going to be desperate for a win, and the Eagles have the edge in the battle of the backup quarterbacks.
11. Dallas -7 vs. Chicago. This line opened at 9.5 and has been dropping, and if I can get it at a touchdown I’m going to go the other way. The Cowboys defense played well last Sunday night, and but for some bad luck plays, the Cowboys should have won that game. With the news that Colombo is practicing (I’m sure Alex Barron’s performance gave that a little sense of urgency), I look for an improved offense. But it’s on defense, in the season opener of their second year in a new stadium, that I look to carry the Cowboys to a cover.
12. Indianapolis -5.5 vs. New York Giants. The over/under on minutes until I hit the mute button is 12.5. I’d lean under.
GUESSES
13. Jacksonville +7.5 at San Diego. David Garrard threw 3 tds and 5 int’s on the road last year; he was 12 td’s and 5 int’s at home, as the Jags were much worse on the road last year (2-6 versus 5-3 at home). However, all the research I’ve seen would suggest they are no more likely to have a wide home/road split this year as any other team. San Diego is the better team here, but I don’t like laying over a touchdown when they had so many issues with things like kick coverage in week 1.
14. Carolina -3 vs. Tampa Bay. A game only fantasy owners could love. Mike Williams tries to duplicate Nicks’ success, while DeAngelo should be a solid start.
15. Atlanta -6.5 vs. Arizona. Atlanta really struggled offensively in week 1, failing to score a TD, which is why this one is only a guess. I can’t bring myself to trust Arizona on the East Coast, though, either.
16. Saint Louis +3.5 at Oakland. Oakland should not be favored by 3 over anyone, but then again, Sam Bradford is making his first road start, and the Rams haven’t exactly been world beater of late. Taking a guess on the Rams and the points, but this is a pass.