Tampa Bay's Raheem Morris: "Stats are for losers, so you keep looking at stats, we'll keep looking at wins"
By Jason Lisk
It is a great coaching quote in the sense that it says, hey, stop whining and saying what things should be, just do your job. It is increasingly annoying with how it is trotted out constantly, though, because it is way oversimplified and inaccurate.
Parcells didn’t follow it back in 1999, when the Jets got off to a 1-6 start. When discussing his team’s rough luck start, when they lost several close games late, Parcells said, “we’re not that far off, regardless of what people think . . . look, I like this team.” Does that sound like “you are what your record says you are?” No, Parcells is smarter than that. And he was right, as the Jets won 7 of their final 9 games.
So, I’d like to say, you are what your records–the recorded observations of fact about you–say you are. Wins and Losses are a part of that, yes, but certainly not the only part. How you play . . . and how you play in the context of who you play . . . and how you play in doing the things that are more in your control and not just the fickle hand of fate . . . all of these are important in defining what you are. This, of course, comes up because of objections to my ranking of the Tampa Buccaneers at #22 in the power rankings this week, which I thought was honestly generous. The Buccaneers are 4-2, and if that is the only record you look at, I suppose you, and Raheem Morris, can be fooled into thinking they are a good team.
The Buccaneers are what their records, and not just their record in a vacuum, tell us they are. They have been outscored for the season by 30 points. They are below average at passing the ball, stopping the pass, running the ball, and stopping the run. They are above average in turnover differential, and in making a key play at the end of a game when they have been in close games. They have played a below average schedule, and have lost both games against teams with winning records, at home, by 25 points each. Football Outsiders has them at #25 last week in their efficiency rankings. They are 27th in the simple rating system, which looks at point differential and opponent adjustment.
So what does Raheem Morris have to say about this? Fittingly, in a week when Jon Kitna has returned to the national conscience, he is channeling his inner Kitna, who famously predicted the Lions would win 10 games back in 2007. Morris said, when it was pointed out that his team didn’t rank highly in offensive and defensive categories, “Stats are for losers, so you keep looking at stats, and we’ll keep looking at wins.”
Umm, Raheem, guess what “wins” is. That’s right, it’s a statistic. This is a recipe for disaster, a young developing team not nearly as good as their win-loss record, being told they are the shiznit by their coach. A good coach would rein his young team in, point out that they need to work harder and get better and that they can’t rely on winning close games, and bust their butts when they showed signs of cockiness.
If you believe that the Bucs have somehow proved their clutchness and “just know how to win,” I also invite you to take a lovely cruise to the end of this flat world. The most similar team to this Tampa team is those Kitna-led Lions from 2007, who were also at 4-2 despite blowout losses to their two best opponents, by a combined 66 points. They actually got to 6-2, before losing 7 of their final 8.
This year’s Bucs team can go any number of ways. They can actually start playing better and the young roster can have it click, and parlay their early fortune into a good record. They can play no better, keep getting lucky and winning close contests, and may, if they get really lucky, turn in an Arizona Cardinals in 1998 type season, where they use close wins over an easy schedule to sneak in the playoffs. They can then get smoked in the playoffs. Or, they can keep playing about the same, have a coach who blows smoke up their butts, and lose a lot more games than they win for the rest of the season.
[photo via Getty]