Tampa Bay and Atlanta Play for Division Lead
By Jason Lisk
First, they are young at key positions. Freeman is only 22 years old and is playing solid if not spectacularly. Mike Williams is a very good young receiver. LeGarrette Blount is emerging at running back to replace Cadillac Williams. The offensive line should be entering their primes, and no one is over 30 among the normal starters. On defense, rookie Cody Grimm has played well and solidified the issues this team was having at safety. There is nothing that says this team can’t continue to develop and play better over the second half of the season than they have the first.
Second, they have been very good at one thing. They lead the league with 14 defensive interceptions. While some of this can be luck, it can also represent defensive schemes and skill. Of the 21 other teams that had exactly 14 interceptions in the first 7 games since 1978, they averaged 13 interceptions over the rest of the season. That is a regression toward the mean, but still above the league average rate. Only 15 teams since 1978 have had 32 or more interceptions in a season, the most recent being the 2001 Clevelan Browns. It is unlikely that the Bucs continue their 2 interception per game pace, but they will probably be above average at creating turnovers in the passing game.
The Falcons, meanwhile, haven’t exactly been a juggernaut either. They’ve just played a tougher schedule and have not been blown out, except for falling behind at Philadelphia early. They are 29th in pass defense efficiency, but like the Bucs, are creating interceptions (11, 3rd in the league). Plays in the passing game will be available to both offenses, but the Falcons should also be able to take advantage of the Bucs’ porous run defense. These teams are a combined 7-1 in close games, and it could come down to who is better at creating turnovers.
In other action in the early games:
The Jets and Patriots both have trap games on the road. The Lions and Browns are better than their 2-5 records would suggest, and these are the types of games that can make the difference between going to the playoffs or not when we look back at season’s end.
The Chargers go to Houston with a dominating pass offense, while the Texans rank dead last in pass defense. However, the Chargers are coming into the game with virtually their entire receiving group out with injuries, so it will be interesting to see if Rivers can elevate to Manning status and produce regardless of his receivers.
Miami has a vital game at Baltimore, who is coming off a bye. If the Dolphins lose, they fall to 0-4 against the key conference opponents they will be trying to catch for a playoff spot, and will be in major tiebreaker trouble.
Chicago travels to Toronto to play the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo has been playing close games and coming up just short lately. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the early leader for beard of the year. Jay Cutler is struggling after a hot start with Mike Martz, and if he is ever going to get it right, it’s going to be against a team that ranks near the bottom against both the run and pass, and has only 1 interception on the year.
New Orleans at Carolina will test whether the Saints can maintain their focus after a big win. The Panthers will still be without Jeff Otah and DeAngelo Williams.
Can I tell you how excited I am that FOX is showing Minnesota and Arizona locally? I’m rooting for a fight on the sidelines. It’s hard to believe both of these teams have been in the playoffs each of the last two seasons after watching how badly it has gone wrong in 2010.
[photo via Getty]