AFC has Six Teams for Five (or Fewer) Playoff Spots

It will be a high stakes game of musical chairs in the AFC, and someone off to a decent start is going to get squeezed even if they don’t collapse. Playing just good enough down the stretch won’t be good enough. I was discussing this with Chase Stuart, who did a detailed breakdown at the pro-football-reference blog, and I feel pretty confident that 10-6 may get you eliminated on tiebreakers in the AFC. I’m also projecting that the week 17 game between Tennessee and Indianapolis could be an early wildcard game, as the winner may vault to a bye, and the loser could go home. This is going to be a lot like 1980 in the AFC, where all five playoff teams finished at 11-5, and the Chargers entered the weekend having a Monday Night game against Pittsburgh that could either eliminate them, or get them the #1 seed.

In the AFC West, that Raiders comeback in the final minute threw the division into turmoil and opened up the door for the suddenly surging Chargers (even though special teams continues to be an epic fail). These teams all play each other again, with the Chargers getting both opponents at home. I don’t see two teams getting to 10 wins here, since they still have the head to head contests.

That leaves the Big Six, with only room for five. Of the six teams, Baltimore has the easiest schedule. They have already played both the Jets and Pats, and just beat the Dolphins. If they win the second matchup at home against Pittsburgh, they will be in great shape. New England, New York and Pittsburgh still have a three-way head to head series. Setting aside those contests, New England has by far the hardest schedule of these teams, while Pittsburgh and the Jets have more manageable ones. That loss at Cleveland, combined with the Jets comeback in Detroit, could prove vital.  Finally, the two teams from the AFC South, the Titans and Colts, still play twice in the season’s final four games. If one team gets swept in that series, they are in trouble.  Here are the remaining key AFC contests for these six teams:

New England (6-2):  at Pittsburgh, vs. NY Jets, vs. Indianapolis, vs. Miami

New York Jets (6-2):  vs. Houston, at New England, vs. Miami, at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh (5-2): vs. New England, vs. Oakland, at Baltimore, vs. NY Jets

Baltimore (6-2): vs. Pittsburgh, at Houston

Indianapolis (5-3): at New England, vs. San Diego, at Tennessee, at Oakland, vs. Tennessee

Tennessee (5-3): at Miami, at Houston, vs. Jacksonville, vs. Indianapolis, vs. Houston, at Kansas City, at Indianapolis

[photo via Getty]