Sunday Night Football: Patriots Defense is Bending and Eventually Breaking
By Jason Lisk
The Patriots are allowing opponents to complete a league worst 70.1% of passes (206 of 294). The Patriots rank near the bottom in total sacks (14), and considering the number of attempts, they are next to last in sack rate on defense, behind only the Texans. They are equal opportunity offenders when it comes to the defensive failures, ranking in the bottom quarter across the board. Football Outsiders has them at 25th in efficiency against the run, and 27th against the pass. Everyone is victimizing them, as they are 25th in passes to #1 Wide Receivers, 26th in passes to #2 Wide Receivers, 26th when the Tight End is targeted, and 27th in screens and other passes to running backs.
The Patriots are only doing one thing well, and that is limiting really big plays. For all the yards, first downs and completed passes they have surrendered, they have only had one pass completed for over 40 yards, and that one did not result in a touchdown. Part of that is a philosophical approach. Belichick is clearly playing defense to bend and limit big plays, particularly when the Patriots are playing with the lead. That is a legitimate strategy, but the sheer amount of success opponents are having also means that the Patriots are still giving up points when employing this strategy.
Good defensive might trade some yards and first downs, but also come up with sacks when playing with the lead to disrupt drives. The Patriots are bending so much they are still breaking, and the rush defense last week definitely broke along with it. It’s true that some of the yards have been what we might consider “garbage time.” However, we never know when garbage time translates to crunch time. The Patriots defense almost played the Bills back in the game, and were a missed field goal from letting the Chargers have a huge comeback. They will get burned by their lack of pass rush and defensive pressure at some point this year if this continues.
In tonight’s game, Mike Wallace is one of the best deep threats in the game right now, but I look for the Steelers to actually utilize Hines Ward and Heath Miller on medium routes and work on the linebackers in coverage. The gameplan for the Patriots will be what it has been all year. Let the offense use an efficient ball control approach. Limit big plays with the defense and try to “win” in the red zone on defense. Win the turnover battle and special teams. We’ll see if the Steelers can disrupt that by jumping on the Patriots like the Browns did. Oh, and don’t be surprised when Bill Belichick goes for it if the game is on the line. He knows what he has and what he doesn’t.
[photo via Getty]