Monday Night Football: Donovan McNabb's New Deal

I didn’t realize just how true that latter part was, though. The news came out today that Donovan McNabb signed a contract extension for 5 years and $78 million, with $40 million guaranteed. It’s always hard to tell what these deals will actually pay, but looking at the guaranteed money is probably a first step. There is no way that this is a real five year deal, it is just spaced that way for cap hit purposes. Donovan McNabb turns 34 this month, so by the time this extension kicks in and runs, he will be 39 years old.

Before this season, I asked the question “if Sam Bradford is worth 50 million guaranteed, what is Tom Brady worth?” I looked at comparable players to both Sam Bradford (early draft picks in the first five years) and Tom Brady (star quarterbacks during their late 20’s and early 30’s, who were about to turn 33). I concluded that Brady was worth slightly more than Bradford based on above average seasons as a starter during the life of the contract, and a team with Brady would get an earlier return on the investment. However, the difference was not so much that Brady should be worth significantly more than Bradford.

The key here is age, and the typical aging curve of quarterbacks. While we may be tempted to think that great quarterbacks play well late until their 30’s, the evidence suggests otherwise. For every Warren Moon and Brett Favre, there are plenty of Troy Aikmans and Steve McNairs or Terry Bradshaws. Only one-third of the guys who were really good in their early 30’s were still starting at age 37.

Let’s use Brady’s contract, which I broke down earlier this season, as a barometer. Brady’s deal had 48.5 million in guaranteed money. Donovan McNabb is a year older, and not as good as Tom Brady at this point. That extra year of age is certainly worth something. Also, if you want to look at just guys who started for a long time in this league (9+ seasons as a starter) and switched teams at roughly the same age as McNabb (age 33-35), you get Drew Bledsoe, Boomer Esiason, John Hadl, Vinny Testaverde, Roman Gabriel, Dave Krieg, and Steve McNair.  That group went on to start 1.1 more seasons in the NFL as the primary starter, after their first season with a new team, and had 0.7 more seasons of above average play. I would say McNabb is slightly better than that group as a whole, but they are a reasonable barometer to adjust from.

In the Brady post, I mentioned that 16-20 million per year seems to be the going rate for getting a solid starting quarterback for a season, based on the franchise number, and what teams were willing to pay guys like Warner and Favre for one year’s worth of quarterback recently. Based on that, Washington needs to get somewhere between 2 to 2.5 years of good quarterback play from McNabb to justify this guaranteed money — at age 35, 36, and 37.  I would bet the under. I think they overpaid by about $10 million guaranteed.

Of course, there are other elements that may be in play. As @phildreis puts it (courtesy re-tweet from Rich Eisen): “This new McNabb contract is quite possibly the most expensive apology since Kobe Bryant’s ring!”  Well put.

[photo via Getty]