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College Football Top 25: Week 12

My Top 25 for Week 12.  Here are  the calculations.  Here are the FEI ratings that determined the quality win component.  Here are the Sagarin strength of schedule ratings used to break ties.  TCU currently occupies the second position, but that doesn’t mean they will be there at the season’s end.

1. Auburn (18)
2. TCU (16.25)
3. Boise State (15.5)
4. Oregon (15)
5. Stanford (15)
6. Ohio State (15)
7. LSU (14.5)
8. Wisconsin (14.5)
9. Oklahoma (13.25)
10. Alabama (13.25)
11. Michigan State (13.25)
12. Virginia Tech (13)
13. Arkansas (12.75)
14. Oklahoma State (12.75)
15. Utah (12)
16. Nebraska (11.75)
17. Nevada (11.75)
18. Missouri (11)
19. Texas A&M (10.25)
20. Florida State (10)
21. North Carolina State (9.5)
22. USC (9.25)
23. Miami (9)
24. Arizona (8.75)
25. South Carolina (8.5)

Last Five Out: Hawaii (8.5), Air Force (8.25), Northern Illinois (7.75), Florida (7.5), Iowa (7.5)

My system assess a team’s comprehensive resume, regardless of other factors.  It loves Auburn, because of the SEC’s depth.  They beat eight teams in the FEI Top 60 earning quality win points.  Beating a good team is rewarded more than beating a bad team in style.  With a win against either Alabama or South Carolina, Auburn’s lead would be unassailable.

If every team earns the maximum points remaining, Boise State would tie with Oregon.  How can winning the Pac-10 and the WAC undefeated be equal points?  Look at the non-conference schedules.  I discounted FCS wins, limiting Oregon’s point-earning pool to 11 games.  The Ducks’ other two non-Pac 10 opponents, Tennessee and New Mexico, did not add any quality win points.  Boise State and Oregon would both have four point-adding wins.  TCU would have three.

Again, the system assesses the comprehensive season.  So, Ohio State slightly edges Wisconsin despite losing head to head.  You could argue Wisconsin should be ahead of Ohio State based on the head to head, but, to be consistent, you also need to argue that Michigan State should be ahead of Wisconsin.  This is the type of week to week hysteria and inconsistent logic I’m trying to avoid.

The one real disparity with consensus is South Carolina.  The Gamecocks makes the poll this week at 25.  They earned full quality points against Alabama and Florida and a half against Georgia.  They had one FCS win.  Every other win was against a team in the bottom 60, at home.

[Photo via Getty]

 

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