Patriots versus Colts: The Absence of Dallas Clark

You may think Dallas Clark is just an interchangeable part.  After all, his replacement, Jacob Tamme, has been the Colts’ leading receiver over the last three games, with 24 catches.  A receiver’s absence, though, is measured by more than his own numbers, as it may dictate coverages and affect other aspects of the offense.  Clark being out is compounded by Austin Collie’s recent injury problems.  It is pretty clear that Collie had emerged as the third prong of the Colts’ attack this year, along with Reggie Wayne and Clark.  His catch rate is outstanding and it seems pretty clear that he is head and shoulders above Pierre Garcon at this point.  Manning may be able to do it without one of his three favorite targets, but two has made life difficult.

Dallas Clark has now missed 9 games (and counting) since 2006.  When he has played, Peyton Manning has completed 66.8% of his passes, for 7.7 yards per attempt, 5.6% touchdown rate, and thrown an interception on only 1.9% of his passes.  When Clark has been out (including the Chargers game from 2007), Manning completes 62.8% of his passes, for 6.8 yards per attempt, and a 3.8% td rate compared to 3.5% int rate.

The Patriots defense showed signs of life early against Pittsburgh, generating pressure (though some of that is on Roethlisberger).  You know that Belichick will try to dictate coverages that force Manning to look to receivers that he may not trust.  The Colts’ success depends on Manning developing some chemistry with his other receivers to offset the loss of Clark.  So far, Manning may be Superman, but he isn’t quite as powerful when Dallas Clark is out.  Whether that is correlation without causation, I guess we’ll begin to find out, since Clark isn’t coming back.

[photo via Getty]