Future NFL Hall of Famers: The Over 30 Edition
By Jason Lisk
Can we identify them? Some are at the end of their careers, and have pretty much wrapped up the resume’. Others may be in the middle of a career, and some will be just starting out. Today, I’m going to look at those guys who have a more complete bio, and have turned 30 years old as of December 2010. Later, I’ll take a look at the younger guys and try the more difficult task of projecting Hall of Famers.
We’ll split it up and go with about half of our 40-45 Hall of Famers today. I’ve divided them up into groups.
SLAM DUNKS
These are the guys that have all but sewn up a spot in Canton, and would be stunners to never get there. In no particular order: QB Brett Favre, QB Tom Brady, QB Peyton Manning, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, DE Jason Taylor, MLB Ray Lewis, CB Ronde Barber, CB Champ Bailey, TE Tony Gonzalez.
That’s 9 names, so we are almost halfway there, and I left a few guys off that list who many would include as slam dunks.
VERY LIKELY
These are guys that I think have at least an 80% chance of reaching the Hall of Fame, but for various reasons, are not slam dunk cases.
WR Randy Moss and WR Terrell Owens. I think these guys are in, but the wide receiver position is the one that vexes me the most when trying to predict voter behavior, which is odd because it is a position where we have a lot more data to measure productivity than say, offensive guard. The numbers are overwhelmingly there, so I think they overcome any negative perceptions of changing teams and drama, but I could see some voters doing so grudgingly, and not right away.
QB Drew Brees. I think he’s almost there right now, and one or two more good seasons makes him a lock.
S Ed Reed and S Brian Dawkins. How will the committee handle the safeties? I personally put these two above Sharper on the pecking order to get in from this generation, and my only concern here is how the voters split votes. Ed Reed is a near lock and Dawkins should go in within a few years of eligibility as well.
CB Charles Woodson. A bizarre career path, who looked like a Hall of Fame slam dunk early, then was in the Oakland wilderness and moved to Green Bay, before re-emerging last year and winning a DPOY award. That most likely puts him over the top, but the hole in award recognition in the middle of his career keeps him from slam dunk status.
G Alan Faneca. Guards can sometimes win some pro bowl nods on reputation, and I’m sure some of that happened with Faneca late in his career. But 9 pro bowls and 6 first team all pros combined with the ring that selectors like means he is tough to ignore. He’s not a slam dunk because a few guards have slipped through, most notably Jerry Kramer.
Okay, so that’s 7 more guys that are very likely to go in, leaving us with only about 6-7 more to come out of this 30-something crowd.
BORDERLINE CASES
These are guys that will have plenty of debate around them in the meetings of the Hall of Fame selectors, will probably all get multiple opportunities as finalists, but are not slam dunk choices yet.
WR Reggie Wayne and WR Hines Ward. Ward has two rings, a Super Bowl MVP, and is widely considered one of the greatest blocking receivers. His regular season numbers would otherwise put him a touch below Canton. We’ve seen Swann and Stallworth get in, so I expect Ward to make it eventually, but it’s not guaranteed. Wayne will be an interesting case. His numbers will be there, and he will likely retire somewhere in the top 10 in receiving yards. How much will people discount him for playing with Manning? The receiver position is also going to be very crowded when it comes to Hall of Fame discussions.
G Steve Hutchinson. He checks in a touch below Faneca on the HOF pecking order, and was injured this year. That may have ended his run of pro bowls into the future, so his HOF case is likely made. As a guard, there are no guarantees, though I suspect he gets in.
DE Julius Peppers and DE Richard Seymour and DE Dwight Freeney. Seymour played on three championship teams, and was widely regarded as the best 3-4 DE of his generation. Peppers has been a freakish athlete, who has sack totals that aren’t as high as you might expect. Freeney was a disruptive nightmare at times, though he was vulnerable against the run, but had some low sack year in the middle of his career, and is sitting at just below 100 as he turns 31. We’ve seen guys like Richard Dent and Charles Haley and Chris Doleman stay on the ballot but (as of yet) not get in, so I can’t call either of these guys sure things, though I suspect at least one goes, but not all three. Freeney needs to probably have at least one, maybe two more big years to solidify his case, and none of them could stop cold tomorrow.
MLB Brian Urlacher. Ray Lewis is the slam dunk middle linebacker of his generation, so the question is how many will be taken at that position? Randy Gradishar, who battled with Jack Lambert for top honors at the position thirty years ago, is still waiting. Urlacher has a solid case (and I would take him over the retired Zach Thomas) but he’s no lock.
S Darren Sharper. He’s had a long career, and something like the interception return touchdown record is going to give him something to point to. The problem is the safety position may be crowded when he is being discussed, as the two others above, plus a certain guy with lustrous hair, are going to be on the ballot near the same time.
QB Donovan McNabb. It will be very interesting to see what the thoughts on McNabb are in the decade after he has retired. By career similarity comparison, he has a lot of Hall of Famers that show up on his list. He never won a title, but was wildly successful as a starter. My guess is he’s not in, but I also think it’s closer than some folks think and he will appear on some finalist ballots.
K Adam Vinatieri. Twitter came alive with chatter that Adam Vinatieri was a Hall of Fame lock after making the long kick against the Jets to give the Colts the temporary lead at the end of the game. Only one kicker or punter, though, is in the Hall of Fame (Jan Stenerud). Vinatieri’s case is almost entirely based on the playoffs, as he has had a good but not elite career otherwise. I don’t know how the selectors will view him since the standards are so high to get in at the position,
Well, that was 10 for maybe 6 spots. So we’ll close with guys who had good careers but I have on the outside, maybe one or two get the call, but I think they are heavy underdogs.
PROBABLY NOT
OLB Lance Briggs, OLB Joey Porter, C Jeff Saturday, C Olin Kreutz, C Matt Birk, ILB James Farrior, MLB London Fletcher, DT Pat Williams, DE Trevor Pryce, WR Donald Driver, OLB Julian Peterson, DT Jamal Williams, NT Casey Hampton.
[photo via Getty]