AFC Divisional Round: Baltimore at Pittsburgh

As I mentioned in the Sunday Night post, this has been a series marked by close contests between two playoff teams recently, and it probably rates as the top divisional rivalry over the last decade.

In this game, I would look for Todd Heap to continue to get action, as he had a huge game in Kansas City last week, and the best way to attack the Steelers is to spread the field and utilize the tight ends and backs in the passing game.  Ray Rice was reportedly sick yesterday, but should be ready to go as well.  We’ll have to see if he has any effects from the illness.

For Pittsburgh, the emergence of Mike Wallace, particularly late in the season, has been a key factor in giving the offense big play ability.  Wallace has 789 yards from scrimmage in the last eight games, and has gone over 100 yards in each of the last three.  I have a feeling that if the pro bowl voting was held after the season rather than with a few weeks left, Wallace would be in.  He still might go as a replacement, though he would prefer to be in the Super Bowl.

The tale of the tape shows that Pittsburgh has better efficiency numbers, slightly, across the board, with the biggest advantages at rushing defense and passing offense.

The line: Pittsburgh by 3

My pick: Well, I got off to a 3-1 start against the spread last week (the loss being of course my homer pick), but I don’t have a strong feeling on this one.  I am going to go with the points since this series has been so close and the Ravens were able to win in Pittsburgh earlier.  I’ll take Pittsburgh to win, but Baltimore to cover the three points.  Pittsburgh 17, Baltimore 16.

Let’s . . . Get . . . Ready . . . To . . . Rumble.

[photo via Getty]