Michigan St. Needs to Imitate Kansas St. Tonight
By Jason Lisk
How much did that victory improve the Wildcats’ tournament hopes? I think the victory over one of the elite teams shot them up into being solidly in right now, pending any more bad losses. Before the game, they were #40 in the RPI, and they jumped to #32 with that win. That’s the difference of being right on the edge and needing to look good over the final two weeks, and being likely in.
So now the ball is in the Spartans’ court to rebound with an season-saving effort like Kansas State did last night. Since I wrote about the Spartans, they have lost two more games, and sit at 14-10, and are #47 in the RPI. I suspect that a win, on the road against Ohio State, would shoot them up into the mid-30’s and give them at least as big a boost as Kansas State got. Because of how poorly they’ve played lately, they almost need this one.
The difference, though, is where the game is played. Ken Pomeroy gives the Spartans only a 6% chance of winning in Columbus. They will have to be much better offensively to win, and will need to find an answer for Jared Sullinger inside. Michigan State big man Delvon Roe is questionable for tonight with an injury from the Penn State game, and the Spartans will need him to try to contain Sullinger. If Michigan State has to double the post on too many occasions, the Ohio State shooters will prevail.
As for Ohio State, they are coming off their first loss of the year at Wisconsin, in a game they had a 15 point lead at one point. I wouldn’t worry too much about it, though. I thought they should have stayed at #1 (losing at another top ten caliber team is no shame, they were an underdog going in), but I think it is mandated that if you lose, someone else moves up. Ohio State will do what they always do, control the ball and avoid turnovers, load the floor with shooters, feed Sullinger, and have him make good quick decisions in the post as a scorer and passer.
If the Spartans hope to pull the major road upset, they will need to match the intensity that they have rarely shown all year but finally displayed against Penn State last week, then hope Ohio State isn’t hot from outside.
[photo via Getty]