March Madness: Breaking Down the Major Conference Tournaments and Who Needs Wins
By Jason Lisk
BIG EAST TOURNAMENT (Tuesday to Saturday)
Notre Dame can get to a #1 seed if they reach the Big East Championship game, while Pittsburgh has already likely clinched. Several other teams are jockeying for seeding position, and could move a line or two up or down depending on the results this week.
ALREADY IN: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, St. John’s, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Connecticut, Villanova
LIKELY IN: Marquette was 0-4 out of conference against at-large caliber opponents and 4-8 against the other tournament teams from the Big East. They are coming off losses to Cincinnati and Seton Hall, so I think they just need to get a win against Providence to guarantee their spot.
ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE (Tuesday, then Friday to Sunday)
ALREADY IN: Xavier, Temple
NEEDS WORK: Richmond probably can’t afford a quarterfinal loss to Rhode Island or St. Louis, but a win there locks them into the field. Duquesne likely needs to win it all and can’t rely on an at-large selection.
PAC-10 CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT (Wednesday to Saturday)
ALREADY IN: Arizona, UCLA
LIKELY IN: Washington, a third loss to Washington State would throw them into the bubble discussion. Likely still in, but in the discussion to have to play a First Four game on Tuesday. Otherwise, definitely in.
NEEDS WORK: USC needs to beat California in the 4/5 game then beat Arizona again. They have both more good wins and bad losses than other teams on the bubble. I think they can get an at-large with another quality win in the semifinals. Washington State and California must win the tournament.
Big XII TOURNAMENT (Wednesday to Saturday)
ALREADY IN: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M
LIKELY IN: Missouri, a bad loss to Texas Tech in the opening round would put them in the bubble discussion, though I still think they are in, but could slip further in seeding.
NEEDS WORK: Colorado can’t afford a loss to Iowa State. A third win over Kansas State would seal the deal, while a loss to Kansas State would leave them very much right on the cut line on Sunday night. Baylor and Nebraska both finished with a losing record in conference play and lack any quality non-conference results. I think they both need to win the automatic bid to get in.
MOUNTAIN WEST TOURNAMENT (Wednesday to Saturday)
ALREADY IN: BYU, San Diego State, UNLV. These three are all in, but have plenty to play for, as BYU can quiet committee concerns over Davies’ loss with a win in the tournament and secure a #2 seed, San Diego State can lock up a #2, and UNLV could rise as high as a #5 with a tourney title.
NEEDS WORK: New Mexico and Colorado State. They most likely need to win it all. Either would get in the discussion for a last four at-large spot by reaching the finals with a win over BYU, though I think a win over BYU won’t carry the same cache with the uncertainty over Davies’ absence.
CONFERENCE USA TOURNAMENT (Wednesday to Saturday)
ALREADY IN: None
NEEDS WORK: UAB, Memphis, UTEP. UAB is in the best shape as the #1 seed and an RPI of 28 entering the tournament, but they still would see their candidacy questioned if they lost to Memphis for a third time. Memphis’ problem is they have been wildly inconsistent and not very good (Ken Pomeroy has them at #101, below 5 others in conference), and they have to likely go through Southern Miss and UAB, who they did beat in close games in the regular season, to get in. I’m not sure a semifinal loss to UAB would be enough. UTEP has come on strong and blew out Memphis a week ago. A strong run to the finals, which is not out of the question, may push them in. Southern Miss likely needs to win it all, as does #2 seed Tulsa.
BIG TEN TOURNAMENT (Thursday to Sunday)
ALREADY IN: Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan. I’m putting both Michigan and Illinois in because I think the only thing that could knock them out is a bad loss that alters their profile, and since they got a bye as a 4 and 5 seed, and get to face each other, that’s not happening.
NEEDS WORK: Michigan State is in right now because of their strength of schedule and relative lack of bad losses, other than at Iowa. Another loss to the Hawkeyes, who just upset Purdue, and I think Michigan State is out. A win over Iowa followed by a win over Purdue would seal the deal, while a loss to the Boilermakers, depending on the type of loss, keeps them right on the edge, but I think, in the tournament. Penn State is below the other three teams with a 9-9 conference record because of the non-conference. They don’t need to win it, but likely need to reach the title game to get in the at-large picture realistically.
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT (Thursday to Sunday)
ALREADY IN: North Carolina, Duke
LIKELY IN: Florida State, a win over Virginia Tech would secure, though I think they are in now.
NEEDS WORK: Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech. Neither Boston College or Va Tech can afford a bad loss in the first round. Clemson and Boston College would play in a de facto play in game in the quarterfinals, as I have BC barely in and Clemson just out right now. Virginia Tech would clinch a spot with a win over Florida State in the quarters, and would be sweating it (again) if they lose before Saturday.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT (Thursday to Sunday)
ALREADY IN: Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
LIKELY IN: Georgia can’t afford a bad loss to Auburn in the first round, but is otherwise likely in.
NEEDS WORK: Tennessee, Alabama. Alabama is one of the most controversial topics heading into Sunday. They are 12-4 in conference and the #1 seed from the West. The West is also very weak this year, so those 10 games aren’t helping when the committee reviews for good wins, and they were 8-6 out of conference. They would have the lowest ever RPI of any at-large if the committe selects them. They can force the committee’s hand with another win over Georgia in the quarters. Tennessee, meanwhile, has really struggled at home and down the stretch, losing 6 of 9. A loss to Arkansas would mean 7 of 10, and make life uncomfortable.
[photo via Getty]