Reason For Optimism About a 2022 World Cup Revote

The U.S. has been currying favor with Sepp Blatter. U.S. Soccer has offered him unequivocal support. American executive committee member Chuck Blazer fired the shot that took down his two biggest rivals, Jack Warner and Mohammed Bin Hammam. One of Blatter’s choices for the “Solutions Committee” to target corruption is his friend, doctor of our dreams, and former U.S. bid committee member Henry Kissinger. U.S. Soccer seems to be scratching Blatter’s back. Is there a time and specific place Blatter will scratch theirs?

The Qatari AFC president Mohammed Bin Hammam is, presumably, the prime impediment to an investigation and a 2022 revote. He has been suspended, with bribery charges by the FIFA executive committee pending. Those charges were damning enough to prompt his coconspirator Jack Warner to resign. If Bin Hammam is found guilty, keeping him within the organization is indefensible. What happens in his absence?

Vice-president Zhang Jilong, current acting AFC president, probably takes the position permanently. Will Jilong be a bastion in support of a decision that screws China more than any other country?

Awarding 2022 to the United States guarantees probably the most profitable World Cup in history, clears the way for China to bid (without European competition) for 2026, for the sentimental 100-year anniversary Uruguay/Argentina bid to win in 2030 and the World Cup to return to Western Europe for 2034. That lines up nicely for another AFC bid with Australia in 2038. Things go smoothly. Most confederations would accept that.

With the World Cup in Qatar, the earliest China could bid would be 2034. The 2026 Cup goes to the U.S. The 2030 Cup becomes a contentious bid between South America and Europe, with the loser or China bumped to 2038. Potentially, that could mean 20 years without a World Cup in Europe (32 without one in Western Europe). Which confederation favors that outcome?

FIFA does not have justification yet for a revote, but, if motivated to find it, that evidence probably exists. Blatter and his lieutenants could be left choosing between protecting a logistical nightmare against public outcry or making a change that would restore credibility and be preferable to almost everyone. The troubling part is that is the same decision they had to make when they voted initially.

[Photo via Getty]