NFL Free Agency is Full of High Risk and High Reward Moves
By Jason Lisk
That’s not to say that every free agent move is going to fail. In Kansas City, I’ve seen the problems with guys like Kendrell Bell, but also saw Priest Holmes resurrect his career. Here are some risky moves, that could go either way, that face teams. I put these guys on here because I suspect they will command starter money and most of them multi-year deals.
Matt Light, Offensive Tackle (Patriots). Light has been an anchor on the Patriots line for much of the last decade. He’s been a pretty good left tackle when healthy, but not in the Pace/Roaf/Ogden class. He just turned 33, but has an injury history. I tried to take a look at history to see other tackles like Light who had been long time starters and pro bowlers, and several changed teams at around the same age. While some (Roaf, Lomas Brown) found success elsewhere, many, such as Willie Anderson, Bob Whitfield, and Chris Hinton, changed teams and didn’t last long. The average age for the last starting season: 34. I’m guessing, if the Patriots don’t re-sign Light, that another team will have to give a long term deal in a competitive market. They may really be paying a lot for one season.
DeAngelo Williams, Running Back (Carolina): We know the risk of veteran running backs. Williams has been hurt the last two years, and has also been hampered by a bad passing game. I think he is a high risk/reward guy that could go either way. I could see him playing really well for a couple of seasons in a good passing offense that opens lanes, but I could also see him following the path of other running backs at age 28 and continuing to decline. Probably to risky at the price he will command. I’m also hearing that Carolina may re-sign him, which I think would be a horrible move for them specifically. Maybe he makes since for an immediate contender, but why would Carolina not just move on to Stewart and Goodson, and use the money on younger players?
Nnamdi Asomugha, Cornerback (Oakland): He’s an elite cornerback, and he’s probably going to be elite for a couple more years, and then pretty good through year 4 of the deal. The risk here is entirely the cost of a bidding war, where multiple teams with either cap room or big spending owners (see Jerry Jones) and a need will be driving the market. How many years will the winner have to give to spread out the large bonus, and how high will it get? While Nnamdi is the biggest name, he’s also likely to get overpaid over the life of the contract, as teams try to win now.
James Jones, Wide Receiver (Green Bay): He’s been generating buzz since his rookie year, and has been killing it with inconsistent play since that time as well. He plays in a top passing offense and has for his whole career. He can show flashes, but his hands betray him at times. Sure, he’s been behind Jennings/Driver for his career, but Driver slowed last year, Finley was injured, and the opportunity was there. He didn’t fully grab it. I would give him a look as a 3rd receiver or in competition as a #2, but I have a feeling some team is going to give him more than that.
Pat Williams, Defensive Tackle (Minnesota): One of the bricks in the Williams Wall turns 39 during the middle of the season, and he already is slowing down after dominance a few years ago. You want to know how many Defensive Tackles have started at least 8 games at age 39 or older? Zero. (Jim Marshall, Ron McDole, Bruce Smith and Reggie White are the only defensive linemen to start that many past 38, and they were all primarily ends). Still, he is going to have enough of a market as a run stopper that someone will overpay in either years or salary, perhaps both.
Sidney Rice, Wide Receiver (Minnesota): Two years ago, I felt that Favre’s resurgence was in large part a result of having an elite running back and an elite receiver. A healthy Rice made a huge difference, and he has the size and speed combo to be one of the game’s best. Then he struggled with the hip injury all of last year. He’ll be only 25, and if I had to bet, he’s still going to be very good. With the market of teams with cap room also looking for receivers, he’s going to be paid like he has already bounced back, though. Could be a high reward, but the risk that he never gets back to 2009 is there.
Cullen Jenkins, Defensive Line (Green Bay): He’s got versatility to play multiple spots along the line and will be in demand for teams employing a 3-4. He’s also already turned 30, and has played in only 31 games over the last three seasons. Similar players at age 27 to 29 who also missed a similar number of games to injury: Darren Howard (signed with PHI at age 30, started 1 season, backup 3 more), Joe Johnson (signed with GB at 30, started 11 total games over 2 seasons), Seth Payne (started at 30 for HOU, then backup), and Darryl Gardener (signed with DEN at 30, played 5 total games for Broncos). Jenkins injury history + age would scare me away, but I suspect he’ll get a multi-year deal from someone.
Ike Taylor, Cornerback (Pittsburgh): Even though he’s statistically better than Asomugha (if you don’t know good stats from bad ones), he has played for the Steelers with some great teammates, in a system that utilizes his strengths. He should not be in the same class as Asomugha or even Jonathan Joseph, but some team may view him as a consolation prize at the corner position.
[photo via Getty]