There's More Than One Way To Get a Winning Quarterback

In Tennessee, it was to draft a young quarterback, while also bringing in an aging, and at this point maybe average quarterback (Hasselbeck has gone three straight seasons with injuries and below average passing numbers, and is 36). In Minnesota, they’ve gone a similar route with Ponder and McNabb. Seattle, going away from Hasselbeck, went the cheap route and signed Tarvaris Jackson as a free agent. In Carolina, it was the first overall pick of Cam Newton. Jacksonville added a young quarterback to the mix with David Garrard. San Francisco retained Alex Smith, who has never really established himself, while also drafting Kaepernick. Other teams may opt for a trade with either the established starter (Orton) or the inexperienced prospect ready to play (Kolb).

We have several archetypes here, from the failed prospect, to the new young stars, to the solid veteran in the middle of his career, to the aging star wanting another chance with a new team. It’s true that since 1995 (when Carolina and Jacksonville entered the league), exactly half of the Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were early picks playing for the team that drafted them (Aikman, Elway, Roethlisberger, the Manning brothers, and Rodgers) and 3 more were Tom Brady, late round pick extraordinaire. This may lead you to believe that by far the best method to win the Super Bowl. What those raw numbers fail to take into account is that not only have quarterbacks drafted by the original team won more Super Bowls, they have also had more bad seasons, and seasons in total, than other methods of obtaining a quarterback.

I went back to the 1995 season, and for each team, looked at how the #1 starter entering the season was acquired, and grouped them into broad categories. Those categories include both early and late draft picks playing for the original professional team (early being 1st and 2nd round, late being everything else including UDFA’s). They also include several other categories that were acquired either by trade or free agency: previously inexperienced starters (<16 career starts at time acquired), established quality starters under 32 (Orton this year, guys ranging from Brees to Culpepper to Chandler in the past), journeymen/busts under 32 (think Harrington, Tony Banks, Dilfer etc. moving on to new teams), average quarterbacks/journeymen age 32 or older when acquired, and star veteran quarterbacks changing teams at age 32 or older.

A couple of notes on those categories: the quarterbacks were classified based on how they appeared at the time they were acquired, so that Rich Gannon is classified as a veteran journeyman at age 32 or older, though he turned in elite seasons. Steve Young was a young bust/journeyman, because it would be hard to call him established when San Fran traded for him after his stint in Tampa Bay. Players that played in other leagues like Warner (Arena) and Garcia (CFL) are lumped in the “inexperienced acquired via trade/free agency” category.

Here is how each of those groups of teams did in terms of making the playoffs, reaching championship games, and winning Super Bowls since 1995:

So, half of the Super Bowl winning quarterbacks have been high draft picks of their original teams. 40% of all starting seasons since 1995 have had a high draft pick as the projected starter entering a season, though, so it’s only slightly more than should be expected based on the numbers. While we like to make fun of trades like A.J. Feeley, a lot of successful teams have relied on players who were drafted elsewhere and acquired before they played very much, sometimes through trades to become starters, and sometimes by signing them on the cheap and discovering them once they were on the roster. In fact, the playoff percentage is the highest of the categories.

That Bust/Journeyman category is really boosted by Steve Young’s inclusion. Without him, it drops even further, to only 17% of the remaining teams opting to go the Tarvaris Jackson route reaching the playoffs.

So if you think that these moves don’t matter and teams should just draft first rounders, that’s not really true. The teams that have gone the Kolb or Orton route have been almost as successful as teams relying on their early draft picks. Those going the McNabb or Hasselbeck route haven’t been quite as successful (though some of this may be bad teams trying to bridge to young quarterbacks as a stopgap), but enough have made deep playoff runs to say that there is truly more than one way to find a quarterback. Try one way, try another, and then keep trying again until you succeed.

[photo via Getty]