Fantasy Football 2011: Impact of Free Agency Moves

Chad Ocho Cinco to New England: Ocho Cinco is 33 years old, and he’s not a 30 year old Randy Moss in 2007 (nor is Welker as young either). The Patriots had tremendous success last year after dumping Moss by spreading it around more to the two rookie tight ends, Danny Woodhead, and Deion Branch. I don’t expect them to change that formula, but I do expect Chad to slide in and upgrade the receivers. I would downgrade Branch out of the top 48 now. I think this actually helps Welker, who is in year two coming back from the knee injury, and I would bump him to the mid-teens for receiver, higher in PPR. As for Ocho, I’m putting him in the WR 20-24 range, with guys like Dez Bryant, Stevie Johnson and Anquan Boldin.

Carolina re-signing DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith, and adding Greg Olsen: I think the biggest beneficiary here is Cam Newton. Depending on your league’s scoring system (how much it favors rushing numbers), I think he becomes a viable lower end QB2 in the 23-25 range. He now has decent weapons for a #1 overall starting as a rookie. The DeAngelo Williams move was curious for me, and it now muddles the running back situation (again). The Duo was awesome in 2008 and 2009, producing a #1 overall finish for DeAngelo in 2008 and both in the top 15 in 2009. The dreadful offense, mainly from bad quarterback play and lack of passing weapons, drained their production last year. I’m projecting about 2200 yards and 15 td’s out of the running back situation in 2011, but right now, that’s going to be close to a 50/50 split, so I think they both fall in the RB20-24 range, with upside if one gets hurt and the other gets full carries. I don’t think Greg Olsen is a viable fantasy pick at anything other than a bye week filler.

Matt Hasselbeck to Tennessee: I don’t think Hasselbeck is going to be someone to look to in fantasy unless you are in a deep league where teams carry 3 quarterbacks, or as a bye week pickup. He’s been below average the last three years, and hurt. Fantasy ranks are #36, #20, and #26 the last three years. Chris Johnson gives him an upgrade, and Britt is talented, so he gets a slight uptick, but he is now 36. He’s in the QB 23-27 range. The impact will be on Chris Johnson, Kenny Britt, and Jared Cook, knowing that Locker won’t be starting right away. It solidifies CJ in the top 3 as a safer pick, and Britt moves into the 20-25 range (pending news on any suspension), while Cook is a more viable sleeper play as a TE2.

Reggie Bush to Miami: Miami is giving lip service to giving Bush running back carries. He’s not a good running back, and so I look for him to be roughly what he has been recently, maybe slight downgrade without Brees. He hasn’t finished higher than RB35 the last three years, and I would now put him in the low 40’s, unless you get punt return points. The beneficiary of this is rookie Daniel Thomas, because it clarifies what route they are going. Bye bye Ronnie Brown, and upgrade Thomas to a low end RB2, solid flex option.

Donovan McNabb to Minnesota: I’m putting McNabb in the QB 18-21 range with Sanchez, Cassel and Fitzpatrick. Sidney Rice is gone, so it will be Harvin as the top receiving threat, but Adrian Peterson will draw attention. Better than last year, but not what he was in Philly. Just as with Chris Johnson, I think the acquisition of McNabb solidifies Adrian Peterson as the #1 overall pick, and draft Harvin as a WR2 with upside in a PPR.

Tarvaris Jackson and Sidney Rice to Seattle: I don’t think Jackson’s numbers will be that much worse than Hasselbeck’s below average numbers recently (and he should beat out Whitehurst) but that doesn’t make him draftable. Rice’s value takes a slight hit, but he will still be the #1 target, and Jackson can throw downfield (just not always to the right team). I think Mike Williams takes the bigger hit here, and I would put Rice in the WR25-28 range, and bump Williams down to a WR4/5.

Marion Barber and Roy Williams to Chicago, Olsen out: The Bears had only 9 rushing touchdowns last year, as Matt Forte is one of the worst goal line runners among feature backs, while Chester Taylor was just terrible all around. Barber was no great shakes last year and has been slowed by injury, but I expect him to get goal line carries and improve that touchdown total. If you are a touchdown heavy league, he may be worth it. In a more typical balanced league, he’s a RB4, end of draft guy, who can occasional be worth a flex start because of touchdowns. Roy Williams gets a big boost. He’s returning to Mike Martz, and in a true example of one man’s trash being another’s treasure, he’s the best receiver on the roster. I had Johnny Knox at WR #29 by default, but I think Roy slots as a high end WR3 in the WR #25 range, and Knox drops to the late-40’s.

Other Quick Hits:

Mike Sims-Walker to St. Louis– in the mix, but nothing guaranteed, so I don’t think you can put any Rams receiver higher than a WR4 until we see preseason shake out.

Darren Sproles to New Orleans- Fills the Bush role, probably better, and I expect similar flex possibilities as when he was in San Diego.

Carson Palmer not being traded in Cincinnati, Ocho Cinco gone- slight downgrade to AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham, though they are still draftable. Andy Dalton undraftable.

Steve Breaston to Kansas City- Slight upgrade to Dwayne Bowe for consistency reasons (lack of a WR2 meant good defenses focused and shut him down last year) while the Chiefs don’t throw enough for Breaston to be more than a late pick, in the same range as rookie Johnathan Baldwin. Both should provide an upgrade to the receivers in 2011, but may not be starts themselves because the Chiefs are still a running team.

Santonio Holmes re-signs, Burress in, Smith and Edwards out in New York- slight downgrade to Sanchez, but full steam ahead with Holmes as a fantasy breakout candidate. Burress is going to be overrated. No thanks before a late WR3 in the WR35-40 range. Edwards was WR21 and WR46, but Edwards is better than I suspect and old and out of the game Burress will be. Slight bump to Cotchery.

[photo via Getty]