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Fantasy Football 2011: Quarterback Rankings

Thursday was for the running backs, and today we move to the quarterbacks (and wide receivers, coming soon). Doing quarterback projections is a little different. I like to project them for a full 16 game season, and then separately project risk factors. Every quarterback could get hurt, but we suspect Michael Vick, for example, has a slightly higher chance of missing a game because of his style (not to mention that offensive line performance), while others have a greater risk of getting benched because of the backup being a prospect that the team may push into action.

How you assess those risk situations depends on your league. In a 10 team league that only allowed 2 QB’s per team, I would take David Garrard much higher, knowing that someone like a Matt Cassel or Ryan Fitzpatrick is still out there on the waiver wire if I get news he is benched. In a larger league, or one that carries almost all the starters on rosters, or a “2 starting QB” league, I would be more risk averse.

So what I did is project the 16-game totals for a league with 6 points for all TD’s, and 1 point per 20 passing yards/1 point per 10 rushing yards, and then used a replacement value (i.e., what would Andy Dalton do if my guy got benched) for players I projected to potentially miss more starts with risk factors. I labeled these with a single asterisk for slightly more than average risk to miss starts, and a double asterisk for a more significant risk. If your league allows you to be more risky because of format, bump those guys up.

My tiers didn’t change much from when I did it earlier this summer, though I bumped Roethlisberger up to the top of the next tier, based on his schedule (NFC West, which turned Matt Cassel and Jason Campbell into starts last year), and I bumped Orton significantly based on the news out of Denver.

  1. Aaron Rodgers, GB (380)
  2. Michael Vick, PHI (391)*
  3. Tom Brady, NE (365)
  4. Drew Brees, NO (355)
  5. Phillip Rivers, SD (348)
  6. Tony Romo, DAL (339)
  7. Peyton Manning, IND (340)*
  8. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (317)
  9. Eli Manning, NYG (304)
  10. Matt Stafford, DET (302)
  11. Matt Schaub, HOU (300)
  12. Josh Freeman, TB (299)
  13. Matt Ryan, ATL (297)
  14. Joe Flacco, BAL (286)
  15. Sam Bradford, STL (280)
  16. Kyle Orton, DEN (290)*
  17. Kevin Kolb, ARI (275)
  18. Mark Sanchez, NYJ (271)
  19. Donovan McNabb, MIN (273)*
  20. Jay Cutler, CHI (270)*
  21. Matt Cassel, KC (246)
  22. Jason Campbell, OAK (246)
  23. Colt McCoy, CLE (245)
  24. Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF (238)
  25. Cam Newton, CAR (243)*
  26. White Michael Vick, FA (280)**
  27. David Garrard, JAC (275)**
  28. Matt Hasselbeck, TEN (242)*
  29. Alex Smith, SF (250)**
  30. Chad Henne, MIA (226)*
  31. John Beck, WAS (245)**
  32. Tarvaris Jackson, SEA (215)**
  33. Andy Dalton, CIN (200)*

[photo via Getty]

 

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