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Fantasy Football: The Auction Fantasy Values Draft

Auction drafts are a great experience, but in order to have the foundation to succeed, you’ve got to have a good set of values. Yesterday, I described how I set auction values for a specific league using its own scoring system and lineup and roster requirements. Every subtle change to the scoring rules or lineup impacts player values at an auction. I would strongly advise you to set your own for your league’s rules.

However, if you try to use someone else’s, at least know how your scoring system changes some basic values. I’m going to list my auction values for a $200 league with 10 teams, with 16 roster spots, and no mandatory roster requirements other than a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, and 1 DEF. (Also, for simplicity, I put all defenses and kickers at $1).

The values are listed below, but let’s talk about how some basic variations affect fantasy values:

ROSTER SIZE REQUIREMENTS: This will have minimal impact, as the additional players will be of the $1 variety. Converting from a 16 player to 18 player league means $2 fewer dollars to spend on the first 16, hardly a noticeable move.

SALARY CAP AMOUNT: Most leagues are either $100 or $200 per team. It’s not totally accurate to just divide by 1/2 or multiply by 2 to convert. The true conversion going from $200 to $100 scale is about 45% (depending on roster size) of the $200 players value, after subtracting $1, and then adding that $1 back in after making that adjustment. For example, a $61 dollar player would become $29. Just cutting in half is close enough for government work, though.

LEAGUE SIZE: The law of supply of demand dictates that the more teams that are in the bidding for the same players, the more the price goes up. If you play in a 12 team league, the values shoot up for the top players. In a $200 league, 2 more teams means $400 more to spend, and its not going to the backups and kickers. Adding teams means more players needed to start, and lowers all of the baselines I described in yesterday’s posts. Almost all that money will go to the top 30 players, so values could go up by $10-$15 for the elite players in a $200 league.

POINTS PER RECEPTION (PPR): This one will jump the value of the top receivers, the receivers that get a lot of catches, the elite tight ends, and the running backs who are used heavily as receivers at the expense of low catch running backs and primarily starting quarterbacks (since they get no bump). The impact could be as much as $5-$10 in a $200 league for the receivers and elite tight ends that would go early anyway, while the elite quarterbacks see a similar decline in value.

STARTING LINEUP REQUIREMENTS: To Flex or Not to Flex? The more starters required/expected from a position, the more the value increases. In my base projection of 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, without PPR, most of the flex should be filled with a 3rd RB. In a PPR, that changes, and WR’s become attractive flex starts. That changes the baselines for each position slightly. Further, a league that requires 3 WR’s and 2 RB’s will result in an upgrade for receivers, on the range of $4 dollars in a $200 league, at the expense of running backs.

With those adjustments in mind, here are my values using last week’s projections for Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End in a 10 team, 16 player, $200 league with standard non-PPR scoring, and a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 Flex.

QUARTERBACKS

  1. Aaron Rodgers, GB ($46)
  2. Michael Vick, PHI ($42)
  3. Tom Brady, NE ($40)
  4. Drew Brees, NO ($34)
  5. Phillip Rivers, SD ($31)
  6. Tony Romo, DAL ($27)
  7. Peyton Manning, IND ($24)
  8. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT ($19)
  9. Eli Manning, NYG ($13)
  10. Matt Stafford, DET ($13)
  11. Matt Schaub, HOU ($12)
  12. Josh Freeman, TB ($12)
  13. Matt Ryan, ATL ($11)
  14. Joe Flacco, BAL ($8)
  15. Sam Bradford, STL ($7)
  16. Kyle Orton, DEN ($6)
  17. Kevin Kolb, ARI ($6)
  18. Mark Sanchez, NYJ ($5)
  19. Donovan McNabb, MIN ($3)
  20. Jay Cutler, CHI ($3)
  21. Matt Cassel, KC ($2)
  22. Jason Campbell, OAK ($2)
  23. Colt McCoy, CLE ($2)
  24. Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF ($1)

RUNNING BACKS

  1. Adrian Peterson, MIN ($62)
  2. Arian Foster, HOU ($61)
  3. Ray Rice, BAL  ($50)
  4. Jamaal Charles, KC ($45)
  5. Darren McFadden, OAK ($44)
  6. Chris Johnson, TEN ($42)
  7. Peyton Hillis, CLE ($40)
  8. LeSean McCoy, PHI ($31)
  9. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT ($29)
  10. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC ($29)
  11. Steven Jackson, STL ($28)
  12. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG ($28)
  13. Frank Gore, SF ($27)
  14. Jahvid Best, DET ($27)
  15. Ryan Mathews, SD ($26)
  16. Felix Jones, DAL ($25)
  17. LeGarrette Blount, TB ($24)
  18. Matt Forte, CHI ($24)
  19. Shonne Greene, NYJ ($22)
  20. Mark Ingram, NO ($22)
  21. Michael Turner, ATL ($20)
  22. DeAngelo Wiliams, CAR ($20)
  23. Knowshown Moreno, DEN ($18)
  24. Mike Tolbert, SD ($18)
  25. Marshawn Lynch, SEA ($17)
  26. C.J. Spiller, BUF ($15)
  27. Beanie Wells, ARI ($15)
  28. Ryan Grant, GB ($13)
  29. Fred Jackson, BUF ($13)
  30. Daniel Thomas, MIA ($12)
  31. Joseph Addai, IND ($12)
  32. Benjarvus Green-Ellis, NE ($11)
  33. Tim Hightower, WAS ($11)
  34. Cedric Benson, CIN ($10)
  35. Brandon Jacobs, NYG ($10)
  36. Reggie Bush, MIA ($9)
  37. Michael Bush, OAK ($9)
  38. Jonathan Stewart, CAR ($7)
  39. James Starks, GB ($6)
  40. Pierre Thomas, NO ($4)
  41. Rashad Jennings, JAC ($4)
  42. Willis McGahee, DEN ($3)
  43. Delone Carter, IND ($3)
  44. Danny Woodhead, NE ($3)
  45. LaDainian Tomlinson, NYJ ($2)
  46. Ben Tate, HOU ($2)
  47. Roy Helu, WAS ($2)
  48. Thomas Jones, KC ($2)
  49. Stevan Ridley, NE ($1)
  50. Darren Sproles, NO ($1)

WIDE RECEIVERS

  1. Andre Johnson, HOU ($39)
  2. Calvin Johnson, DET ($37)
  3. Roddy White, ATL ($34)
  4. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI ($32)
  5. Hakeem Nicks, NYG ($29)
  6. Vincent Jackson, SD ($24)
  7. Greg Jennings, GB ($23)
  8. Mike Wallace, PIT ($23)
  9. Miles Austin, DAL ($22)
  10. Reggie Wayne, IND ($19)
  11. DeSean Jackson, PHI ($17)
  12. Brandon Lloyd, DEN ($16)
  13. Santonio Holmes, NYJ ($16)
  14. Dwayne Bowe, KC ($14)
  15. Brandon Marshall, MIA ($13)
  16. Mike Williams, TB ($13)
  17. Percy Harvin, MIN ($12)
  18. Dez Bryant, DAL ($12)
  19. Mario Manningham, NYG ($11)
  20. Marques Colston, NO ($10)
  21. Austin Collie, IND ($10)
  22. Stevie Johnson, BUF ($10)
  23. Wes Welker, NE ($9)
  24. Anquan Boldin, BAL ($8)
  25. Kenny Britt, TEN ($8)
  26. Santana Moss, WAS ($7)
  27. Sidney Rice, SEA ($6)
  28. Chad Ochocinco, NE ($6)
  29. Lance Moore, NO ($6)
  30. A.J. Green, CIN ($5)
  31. Mike Thomas, JAC ($5)
  32. Julio Jones, ATL ($4)
  33. Jacoby Ford, OAK ($4)
  34. Jeremy Maclin, PHI ($4)
  35. Lee Evans, BAL ($4)
  36. Steve Smith, CAR ($3)
  37. Braylon Edwards, SF ($3)
  38. Johnny Knox, CHI ($3)
  39. Greg Little, CLE ($2)
  40. Nate Burleson, DET ($2)
  41. Robert Meachem, NO ($2)
  42. Plaxico Burress, NYJ ($1)
  43. Brandon Gibson, STL ($1)
  44. Jordy Nelson, GB ($1)
  45. Mike Sims-Walker, STL ($1)
  46. Malcolm Floyd, SD ($1)
  47. Pierre Garcon, IND ($1)
  48. Andre Roberts, ARI ($1)

TIGHT ENDS

  1. Antonio Gates, SD ($22)
  2. Jason Witten, DAL ($21)
  3. Vernon Davis, SF ($18)
  4. Jermichael Finley, GB ($14)
  5. Owen Daniels, HOU ($10)
  6. Dallas Clark, IND ($10)
  7. Jimmy Graham, NO ($10)
  8. Kellen Winslow, TB ($7)
  9. Rob Gronkowski, NE ($7)
  10. Marcedes Lewis, JAC ($4)
  11. Brandon Pettigrew, DET ($3)
  12. Dustin Keller, NYJ ($3)
  13. Tony Gonzalez, ATL ($2)
  14. Jermaine Gresham, CIN ($2)
  15. Jared Cook, TEN ($2)
  16. Aaron Hernandez, NE ($1)
  17. Greg Olsen, CAR ($1)
  18. Brent Celek, PHI ($1)
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