Fantasy Football: Using Second Running Backs From Heavy Favorites

The problem with that is we cannot predict the future, and so while it would be great to know ahead of time how many carries a non-starter would get, nothing is guaranteed. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t take good guesses. In a melding of gambling data and fantasy football data, I decided to take a look last season at running backs in games where the team was favored by more than 7 points before kickoff.

There were 46 games last year where a team was favored by 7.5 or more. I went through those games and assigned a RB1 and RB2 based on fantasy starting likelihood. For example, even though Thomas Jones started over Jamaal Charles, Charles was treated as the RB1. I counted only the RB1 and RB2 (sometimes a FB, depending on team), and if any other backs scored, even if they outscored one of the other two, I didn’t include them.

Let’s start with the RB1’s in games where the team was a strong favorite. Those backs, which featured plenty of high performers, but also guys like Addai, Brandon Jackson, Chris Ivory, Pierre Thomas, Benjarvus Green-Ellis and Reggie Bush, averaged 93.7 yards from scrimmage and 0.7 touchdowns. That would project to about 1,500 yards from scrimmage and 11 TD’s over the course of a season, and the composite RB1 as a heavy favorite would have been the 7th highest scorer among fantasy runners.

But then again, you probably knew to make sure your starting back was in a game against a much weaker opponent. How about the RB2’s who would not be automatic starts?

Those 2nd Running Backs include plenty of guys who were irrelevant or barely got touches. Still, as a group, they averaged 41.2 yards from scrimmage and 0.45 touchdowns. Those numbers may not sound impressive, but they would have equaled roughly the 34th best running back on a weekly basis in a non-PPR league. If we get rid of the Ovie Mughelli’s and John Kuhn’s and focus on the guys who were likely on fantasy rosters as backups/flex players (Thomas Jones, Willis McGahee, Mike Tolbert, Danny Woodhead, Darren Sproles, Ryan Mathews, Brandon Jacobs, and Reggie Bush) the numbers shoot up, to 58.6 yards and 0.86 touchdowns a game. That 11.0 fantasy points per game in a non-PPR league would have been very solid RB2 production on a weekly basis, and basically equates to Cedric Benson last year (16th most fantasy RB points).

For this week, I don’t think you needed me to tell you to start Rashard Mendenhall vs. Seattle, as he should be near the top of the projections. If you had any lingering doubts, I would still put Shonne Greene out there vs. Jacksonville, and make sure Jahvid Best was starting against KC.

Ryan Grant and James Starks are both good flex choices going against Carolina as a 10 point favorite and odds are pretty good at least one of them cashes in with a touchdown. LaDainian Tomlinson showed he was still contributing last week, and this would be a week to still go to him in fantasy. If you are desperate because you lost Steven Jackson or Knowshown Moreno, and don’t have their backups, or if your receiving group (like mine in one league) is decimated by injuries after just one week, then two other backs present deep sleeper potential this week.

Isaac Redman had only 3 carries as the Steelers were behind all week (Mendenhall had 12). If the touches for the running backs go north of 35+ as Pittsburgh plays with a lead and Seattle struggles to pick up first downs, He could get 10+ plays. Last year, in the two games that Pittsburgh was a heavy favorite and Redman was active, he totaled 74 yards and a TD. Jerome Harrison of Detroit had 8 carries last week, and Detroit is an 8.5 point favorite at home. I think he is a viable option to start if you need help due to injuries. I don’t think they are the key to a fantasy season, but those are the kind of emergency pickups that could get you through the week.

[photo via Getty]