Buffalo Bills and Oakland Raiders Is a Bigger Game Than We Thought a Week Ago
By Jason Lisk
Buffalo won a convincing road game at Kansas City, 41-7, in a performance not many saw coming. The defense, with top pick Marcell Dareus lining up next to Kyle Williams at defensive tackle, and with reclamations from other teams like Shawne Merriman, Kirk Morrison and Nick Barnett, held Kansas City to 213 yards of total offense as Matt Cassel only managed 105 yards on 36 pass plays. The offense featured an effective running game with Fred Jackson that had 9 rushing first downs, and a passing game that averaged over 7 yards an attempt and where Fitzpatrick was only sacked once. Only 1 of the 17 passes was caught by a player over age 26 (Fred Jackson).
So, knowing only that the Bills won a road game by a large margin, does that tell us anything? Yes and no. I went back to 1990 and looked at all teams that won a road game by at least 30 points, and asked, “if all we know is that Team X won a single game on the road by that much, what is the likely result in the other 15?”
There were a couple of teams on the list who did it twice in the same season. 78 different teams (besides Buffalo) had a 30+ win on the road. They averaged 10.1 wins over the season, and 61.5% of them made the playoffs. What we do know is that Buffalo is not very likely to be a bad team. Only 9 of the 78 finished with a losing record. The 2002 Bengals, amazingly, went 2-14 with one of the wins being a 30 point road win. The 1992 Lions came off a trip to the NFC Championship Game, and went 1-6 in close games in finishing 5-11 the next year, despite a blowout road win. Everyone else won 6 or more games.
Now, we don’t expect them to be a Super Bowl contender, but knowing only that they one a road blowout, history would say their range of outcomes is likely from solidly average to a playoff team. Truly bad teams don’t tend to win on the road in blowouts.
As for the Raiders, they won in Denver to extend their mastery over the AFC West from last year. The passing offense looked a little ragged at times and they wanted to get Jacoby Ford in space with quick plays, and it now looks like he may miss as he has not practiced all week. The defensive line really played well last week, and the secondary held up reasonably well in game one A.A. (after Asomugha). Darren McFadden is also was in his form from last year. The winner of this old AFL rivalry will get to 2-0 and have what could be a key tiebreaker for teams hoping to contend now.
Other 1 p.m. games:
Chicago (0-1) at New Orleans (1-0). The Saints interior line of Evans, Kreutz and Nicks struggled in short yardage last week, and New Orleans will need to convert in the red zone to pull ahead of Chicago. The Bears won a Bears-type game against the Falcons, relying defensive pressure on Matt Ryan, turnovers and big plays by Forte and Hester. The running game still averaged under 3.5 per carry (Forte did have one 27 yard run) and Cutler was sacked 5 times, so there is room for improvement despite the score line.
Green Bay (1-0) at Carolina (0-1). Cam follows up his big performance by drawing one of the best defenses from 2010.
Kansas City (0-1) at Detroit (1-0). Matt Stafford will test the Chiefs’ safeties without Eric Berry with deep passes early. Whether this game stays close depends on whether he hits them.
Cleveland (0-1) at Indianapolis (0-1). Two teams coming off disappointing performances, and the loser of this one is in trouble.
Tampa Bay (0-1) at Minnesota (0-1). Both of these offenses struggled last week, but Minnesota’s were more pronounced. A big game for Tampa on the road if they really have playoff aspirations in 2011.
Jacksonville (1-0) at NY Jets (1-0). Luke McCown will be facing a little more pressure this week.
Seattle (0-1) at Pittsburgh (0-1). If Pittsburgh is going to rebound and show themselves to be serious contenders, this is the kind of game they should win handily. A less than stellar performance by the defense will raise more questions.
Baltimore (1-0) at Tennessee (0-1). The Titans looked dreadful offensively save for one big catch and run by Kenny Britt. Chris Johnson had his week to work back in, and now needs to be a big part of the game plan if the Titans have any chance.
Arizona (1-0) at Washington (1-0). Rex Grossman is getting the attention, but the defense played much better than they did in 2010 in the opener.
[photo via Getty]