Nate Silver Brings Some Clarity to College Football Realignment Madness
By Ty Duffy
People Do Care About the Big Ten and Notre Dame. The top four programs in order: 1. Ohio State (3.2m) 2. Michigan (2.9m) 3. Penn State (2.6m) 4. Notre Dame (2.3m). Seven Big Ten teams are in the Top 20. Nine are in the Top 30. Only Northwestern (54) is outside the Top 50. This explains the Big Ten’s expansion policy. The conference averages 1.5m fans per school. Any school lower than that, even an Oklahoma (1.2m) would siphon more revenue than it added and would cause schools to lose money. The only plausible targets are Notre Dame and Texas.
Texas A&M makes incredible sense for the SEC. Texas is No. 5 with 2.3 million fans. The Aggies are just behind at No. 6 with 2 million fans. Adding Texas A&M is adding another Alabama, Auburn or Florida into the conference. It would raise the conference’s 1.1 million average and make schools more money on a new TV deal.
The Pac 12 needs fans. Why is the Pac 12 being so aggressive in realignment? They would be the biggest television revenue victim, should a more accurate fan metric be developed. The Pac 12 has only three of the Top 40 fan bases: USC (17), UCLA (25) and Cal (31). Six Pac 12 programs are outside the Top 50. The proposed Pac 16 would add Texas (5), Oklahoma (19), Texas Tech (33) and Oklahoma State (41).
Missouri should be the 14th SEC Team. Based purely on numbers, Clemson (1.8m) or Georgia Tech (1.7m) make the most sense. Neither would be accepted for political reasons. Virginia Tech would be the next plausible school at (1.3m). It would be difficult to get them. The Hokies might not want to leave the ACC. Missouri has fewer fans (1.1m) but, as a free agent, would be hassle free.
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