The BCS rankings don’t come out until October 16, but everyone with a calculator and interest in simulation is working feverishly to try and get a grasp on what the numbers will look like. The BCS Guru has crunched every college football number known to man and here’s what he thinks the BCS formula will spit out in 10 days:
1 Alabama 0.9637 SEC
2 LSU 0.9260 SEC
3 Oklahoma 0.8682 B12
4 Boise State 0.8154 MWC
5 Oklahoma State 0.7939 B12
6 Clemson 0.7685 ACC
7 Stanford 0.7262 P12
8 Wisconsin 0.7173 B10
9 Texas 0.5938 B12
10 Michigan 0.5397 B10
A few things worth noting:
* The disparity between the top 2 and everyone else is dramatic. Make sure you’re in front of a TV for Alabama-LSU Nov. 5th in Tuscaloosa. I’d say the loser probably remains in the top 4, assuming the final score isn’t 30-0.
* Oklahoma will get a nice little bump after beating Texas Saturday. The improvement of Baylor and Kansas St. helps Oklahoma’s chances … but the Sooners have both of those games on the road. Neither is a gimmie.
* Boise State, which in a 1-game scenario could take anyone in the Top 10, plays no more ranked opponents and the only way the Broncos improve their BCS number is if Georgia, Toledo and TCU don’t lose again.
* Clemson has beaten Auburn, Florida State and Virginia Tech, all when they were ranked. But that putrid BCS number shows how the Tigers get dinged because of that dumb-ass preseason poll. A 1-loss Alabama or LSU (sadly) would play for the BCS title before unbeaten Clemson, mostly because of the preseason poll.
* Stanford, whom everyone loves, will only play one ranked team this year (Oregon, in Palo Alto). Want to know why the Cardinal are this low? Their opponents have an 8-12 record so far. This week’s opponent is Colorado – the Buffaloes are 1-4. Stanford would need LOTS of chaos to get into the title mix.
* Wisconsin, which played nobody in the non-conference schedule, only meets two ranked opponents this year: Nebraska and Illinois. The Badgers already walloped the Cornhuskers. The Illini are unbeaten, but it’s mostly smoke and mirrors. As if there aren’t enough reasons in this post why we need a playoff, there’s this: Wisconsin, essentially, is being penalized because of the random Big Ten sked (no Michigan), and because traditional powers (Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State) are not very good. This year.
[H/T Wiz of Odds]