Northwestern failed to cover against Penn State last week, but otherwise a strong 4-1 brought me to 25-13-2 on the year. Let’s see how we do this week, tackling some big games.
Stanford (-7.5) at USC: The Notre Dame win overvalues USC. Any argument for the Trojans rests on their defense and Lane Kiffin. There are plenty of reasons to love Stanford here. USC has better top-end talent, but they don’t have the depth to withstand a relentless Stanford team for 60 minutes.
Georgia (-3) vs. Florida: I’m not sold on Georgia, but Florida’s offense has been abysmal since John Brantley was injured (17 points in two and a half games). It had problems when he was healthy. Florida has won 18 of 21 against Georgia, but this Gator team bears little resemblance to those ones.
Michigan State (+4) at Nebraska: The Cornhuskers are at home. It’s a potential let down game for MSU (so were the last two games). That said, what precisely is the rationale for Nebraska being favored? Their defense hasn’t been convincing. This will be the best defense Nebraska has faced. And you’re giving me points?
Navy (+21.5) at Notre Dame: Navy is 2-5, but four of the five losses were by a field goal or less. The Midshipmen are 3-0 against the spread on the road. Guessing Kelly throwing his players under the bus didn’t inspire them. I think Notre Dame starts tentatively and does not cover.
Oklahoma (-13.5) at Kansas State: Kansas State has been impressive thus far, but, here, they submit to overwhelming force. The Wildcats don’t have the passing game to exploit the Sooners’ coverage breakdowns. They should struggle to generate pressure and to matchup downfield in the passing game. Stoops has never lost consecutive Big 12 games.
Previously: College Football 2011 Preview Week Nine
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