Andy Dalton and the Bengals With a Big Home Test Against the Steelers

Today, though, is the kind of day that can announce Dalton’s presence against a division rival in a big game. The Steelers, for all the injuries they’ve had on defense, are still a very good pass defense, probably the best that Dalton has faced (he has yet to play Baltimore or Houston, either).

The Bengals come in at 6-2, tied for the division lead, and ahead in the loss column of the Steelers. A win today, and Cincinnati is a serious contender in the AFC, and Pittsburgh is on the ropes.

So how does Dalton compare to other quarterbacks? There are a couple of issues here. He is a rookie, but he is a 24-year old rookie, so he is far more mature than most and that has to be accounted for when projecting Dalton. The rookie thing still is a factor, though, as he didn’t have a full offseason of training camp. Cam Newton is two years younger, and Matthew Stafford is still younger than Dalton.

When we look at similar seasons by quarterbacks at age 24, using the underlying indicators (completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown %, interception % and sack rate), the things that stick out are Dalton’s completion percentage versus yards per attempt, and his excellent sack rate. Young QB’s who can have a positive completion percentage and sack rate are a good thing. Since avoiding sacks sometimes involves throwing the ball away or getting rid of it earlier than you want to, it speaks to Dalton’s accuracy and pocket awareness to be better than league average in his first year and at age 24.

Here are the 10 most similar passing seasons at age 24 to Andy Dalton, using his current rate stats. Most were not rookie seasons.

John Elway (1984)
Tommy Kramer (1979)
Brian Griese (1999)
Drew Bledsoe (1996)
Archie Manning (1973)
Jim Everett (1987)
Eli Manning (2005)
Bob Avellini (1977)
Byron Leftwich (2004)
Kerry Collins (1996)

Given his rookie status, I tend to think he will lean more toward the successes on that list who at least went on to start for several years in the league, guys like Kramer and Collins and Everett. I also fear that people are failing to account for his age, and overattributing the team success right now, and there will be the inevitable backlash when luck and other factors change.

He’s a solid quarterback right now, and will likely continue to be so. Cincinnati has at least solidified the position, which is a good thing. Now, they find themselves in a playoff hunt they could only hope for two months ago.

Other games:

New Orleans at Atlanta

Houston at Tampa Bay

St. Louis at Cleveland

Denver at Kansas City

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

Buffalo at Dallas

Washington at Miami

Arizona at Philadelphia

Tennessee at Carolina

[photo via Getty]