BCS Scenarios: One-Loss LSU Still Virtual Lock For BCS Title Game

An Oklahoma State loss could create a dilemma for the BCS, however, LSU, with head to head wins over Alabama and Oregon has a greater margin for error. The Tigers must play BCS No. 6 Arkansas and, presumably, BCS No. 14 Georgia to go undefeated. However, they can lose either game and still be almost guaranteed a place in the BCS title game.

We’ll assume they beat Ole Miss to move to 11-0…

If LSU loses to Arkansas: The SEC West likely ends in a three-way tie. This tie would proceed to the final tie-breaker, BCS standings. The third-place team in the BCS is eliminated. Then the top two teams would then be decided based on head to head. Arkansas would still be the third team.

Voters would not put them ahead of Alabama, who crushed them, limiting the upward thrust from the win. Presently in sixth place, they would have far to go in the computer polls to catch the Tigers. Even if LSU fell behind Alabama, they would win the head to head tie-breaker and proceed to the SEC title game. The only way LSU would lose the SEC West would be losing to Arkansas and having Alabama lose to Auburn (not likely). This would leave Arkansas and LSU tied, with Arkansas having the head to head advantage.

If undefeated LSU loses to Georgia: They should still reach the BCS title game. Alabama or Oregon would have to pass LSU to knock them out. Voters would not place Alabama or Oregon ahead of LSU, even if Oregon did win its conference. Neither Alabama [Georgia Southern, Auburn] nor Oregon [USC, Oregon State, ASU/UCLA] has a marquee win left to push ahead in the computer rankings.

Essentially, LSU must lose against both Georgia and Arkansas to miss the BCS title game. LSU fans won’t have to travel far.

[Photo via Getty]

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