Jeff Fisher Has Interviewed With Miami and St. Louis. Does One Situation Seem Better Than the Other?

It’s good to be a solid veteran coach, I guess. Last week, I mentioned the general lack of success for experienced successful coaches returning after taking time off, where they won only 44.4% of their games at the new job and made the playoffs less than 30% of the time. In Tennessee, Fisher made the playoffs 6 times in 16 full seasons, an exactly league average result. He made the playoffs with three different starting quarterbacks, but won all of his playoff games (none since 2003) with Steve McNair at quarterback.

So, I suspect someone is going to pay handsomely for Fisher as he creates leverage. Which team, though, is more attractive? On one hand, St. Louis has Sam Bradford in place, has a very high draft pick in next year’s draft that may bring some value, and some other young players who you can build around (Long, Laurinitis on defense; Saffold when healthy on offense). The Rams were also dreadful this year, and other than last year’s blip when a favorable schedule and better defense produced 7 wins, largely horrible for the last five years.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, define mediocrity. They won 6 games this year and should have won more, as early red zone struggles and close game failures (2-5 in one score games) left them out of the playoffs despite outscoring their opponents. They have a tackle in Jake Long, considered among the best, along with first round pick Mike Pouncey. Cameron Wake and Vontae Davis give the team playmakers to go with veterans like Karlos Dansby, and several young players that could emerge. Reggie Bush had his career year in his first season in Miami, while Brandon Marshall can be infuriating, but is still one of the best 10-15 receivers when he is playing focused. The quarterback position is an uncertainty, it would seem, as Matt Moore came on and played better this year in Miami after a bad start in Carolina last year, while Henne was playing better before his season ending injury.

First, let’s take a quick look at teams like the Rams and Dolphins, who fired their coaches and were replacing them. The Rams won 2 games this year, and only 10 over the last three years. The Dolphins won 6 games this year (and should have won more) after going 7-9 each of the previous two seasons. For the Rams, I found all teams replacing their coach after 3 or fewer wins in the final year, and fewer than 15 in the three years prior to the change. For the Dolphins, I found all teams with between 5 and 7 wins in the final year, and between 18 and 23 (so, more losses than wins, but not averaging less than 6). The sample sizes are small (16 St. Louis comps and 19 Miami comps) but we can at least see if one situation has tended to be better. As it turns out, virtually all of the St. Louis comps had either a young quarterback in place or were in position to draft one highly. Most of the Miami comps, though not all, had uncertain quarterback situations.

The Miami comps had more wins in all but year two, and made the playoffs 26% versus 19% of the time for the St. Louis comps. Only one team from each group reached the Super Bowl in the four years after the new coach came on: the 2000 New York Giants with Jim Fassel (Miami comp) who transitioned from Dave Brown at QB to Kerry Collins, and the 1996 New England Patriots with Bill Parcells (St. Louis comp) who drafted Drew Bledsoe with the first overall pick.

The sample sizes are too small to make any definitive conclusions. The evidence that the Rams’ situation, because of Bradford, is a better overall option, though, is shaky. Plenty of young quarterbacks in similar spots did not pan out, and even those who weren’t the problem (Testaverde or Young in Tampa, for example) could not do it by themselves.

Matt Moore, by the way, cannot be ruled out. He’s put together a decent year replacing Jake Delhomme, then played poorly at the start of last year and got benched in Carolina, and bounced back this year. Similar quarterbacks who played part time and put up similar era-adjusted results at ages 25 to 27 include guys like Chris Chandler, Stan Humphries, Jim Harbaugh, and Ron Jaworski (and plenty who did not pan out, not to suggest he is a slam dunk by any means).

I would take Miami as the better option if I were Fisher. Whether Bradford is the answer or not, there is a lot interfering with even asking the question. I think focusing only on the quarterback is troublesome. Plenty of coaches have been able to come in and make a move there and stabilize the position, and if Fisher is worth the price, he should too. The Dolphins are a lot closer to contention with a few key moves. Also, if it doesn’t pan out, and I were collecting a retirement check in my second go-around, I could think of worse places than Miami.

[Photo via Getty]