New York Giants at Green Bay Packers: Giants Come In Confident, But History Says They Shouldn't Be

This game reminds me of the 2007 postseason. In fact, that was the last time the Green Bay Packers hosted a playoff game, and it was the infamous overtime loss to these New York Giants. However, it is not that game that shows up on a list of most similar games from that postseason. It is the previous game, the Divisional matchup between the Packers and a confident Seattle team coming into the game off a solid victory over Washington and feeling like they had a chance.

In the case of the Packers and the Giants, what we see is (mostly) games where the home team had far more wins than the visitor, and where both were usually pretty good at passing the ball, but the home team was better. The home teams representing the Packers often had great quarterbacks having great seasons, while the visitors often had pretty good quarterbacks themselves.

The #1 comparable game was from just two years ago, and a team that these Packers will hope to emulate, with a high powered passing offense, and a middling defense that created turnovers. The Saints came out early against the Arizona Cardinals led by Kurt Warner, and cruised to a 45-14 win. Next on the list are two Steve Young teams with San Francisco going on to victory in the Divisional Round, followed by the Packers versus the Seahawks from 2007, then Kurt Warner’s Greatest Show on Turf Rams against the Vikings after the 1999 season.

Five of the top 6 most similar matchups saw the home favorite score at least 40 points in the Divisional Round matchup. None of them involved the home team losing to the road team, a perfect 10-0. I have to go to #12 on the list of similar games, Pittsburgh winning at Indianapolis in the Jerome Bettis fumble/Vanderjagt shank game following the 2005 season, to find the first road upset.

When I weight the results, the average score is 37.9 for the Green Bay comps, and 19.3 for the NY Giants comps, with a 18.6 point difference. Now, do I think the Giants have virtually no chance? Of course not. They played the Packers tough earlier this year, albeit at home, and have the players on the defensive line to try to generate pressure without blitzing. I do think these similarity results show that if you are going to try for the upset, you better not just be a more imperfect form of the favorite. The Giants, like the Packers, are not very good at running the ball, struggle to stop the run, and pass the ball really well. The only advantage for New York is pass defense in 2011, but that is more than offset by how good the Packers have been.

The Giants are coming into the game with lots of confidence. History is littered with confident teams coming off a good showing in the wildcard round, who had a little too much hubris while the favorite sat at home and the public, and the opponent, forgot just how good they were and why they were the ones resting in the first place. If the Giants hope to outgun the Packers, they are going to need to be a better version of the Packers, not an imperfect one.

[photo via Getty]