AFC Divisional Playoff: Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
By Jason Lisk
Tebow’s magic has almost exclusively occurred in that late afternoon window at around 7 pm eastern time, so we’ll see if it has staying power as the clock moves closer to midnight. This one would appear to be a mismatch. The Patriots went into Denver a month ago, ending the Broncos run of five consecutive close wins with a 41-23 victory over Denver. In that game, Denver ran the ball at the Patriots successfully early, and held a 16-7 lead early in the second quarter, but then New England did what they have done in so many other games recently. They outscored Denver 34-7 for the rest of the game in not only coming back to win, but win comfortably.
Tim Tebow had his best game of the season last week, actually playing an instrumental role in the late victory, and not relying on something like a turnover or missed field goal, but making plays early as well. If he duplicates that performance, Denver has a chance. He benefitted from the Steelers missing several key defenders, but he also hit those plays by making accurate downfield throws with favorable coverage. I anticipate that the Patriots will learn from the Steelers, and not risk giving up the big plays. The Patriots have given up a lot of yards, but because the offense rarely leaves them in a bad spot, they don’t generally give up a ton of points. I would anticipate that New England will try to contain Tebow, but also limit him from having single coverage deep throws. Make him execute repeatedly, and don’t get burned by the big play.
Meanwhile, it is the other side where Denver needs to find inspiration. New England has been rolling, and Denver has to find a way to limit Gronkowski in the red zone, and generate early pressure on Brady. If Denver does not slow down New England, then it may not matter if Tebow plays one of his better games.
The Line: New England by 13.5
My Pick: Denver is a live dog, considering that they can run the ball, and New England has a suspect pass defense. I expect New England to win. I have a hard time laying such a large line, though, and I suspect New England wins by about 10. Denver +13.5
[photo via Getty]