NFC Divisional Playoffs: New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers

So, this one is likely going to be a pretty good game. The Saints are coming in on fire and are a slight favorite because of their offense. One of the things that will be interesting when the Saints have the ball is how much they try to run the ball. The Saints pass it a lot with Drew Brees anyway, but they do normally have an efficient running game. The 49ers rush defense is so good, it didn’t even surrender a rushing touchdown until the 15th game. We saw in the Super Bowl last year, when the Packers played a great run defense in Pittsburgh, that they did not even try to run it. How pass heavy will New Orleans be early? My guess: almost entirely, and even in short yardage they may show run formation and still pass. If they do run, I look for it to be against formation tendency.

I still think a New Orleans back will play a key role. I look for Darren Sproles to be a heavy part of the game plan splitting wide or getting on the edges in screens, to try to keep him away from Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman.

Meanwhile, the key to the game may be the other side of the ball, where the 49ers passing offense gets to go against the Saints’ weaker pass defense. San Francisco has been efficient, only turning the ball over 10 times all year, but has relied on a league-record number of field goals. That recipe–avoid turnovers, kick field goals, let defense throttle the opponent, rinse, repeat–is fine during the regular season. San Francisco is going to have to hit some big plays in the passing game to avoid bogging down in the red zone, or convert the opportunities into touchdowns when they get there. Delanie Walker is out this game, and San Francisco uses lots of two tight end sets with Walker and Vernon Davis, so it will be interesting to see how they adapt to create mismatches against the Saints.

Overall, this is a pretty even matchup, with the Saints properly installed as a slight favorite. The 49ers are likely to see a lot of Drew Brees passes, short, long, to the backs and tight ends, and out of as many formations as Sean Payton can dream of. Will San Francisco create turnovers off those opportunities? Or will they cash in with touchdowns on offense? Those are the key questions in this game, and if the 49ers answer them positively, they win. If they don’t, the Saints will march on to the championship game.

The Line: New Orleans by 3.5

My Pick: I’ve gone back and forth on this one, and I think it’s a pretty good line. I’ll take the points and pick San Francisco +3.5.

[photo via Getty]