The Packers Fall From Best Record to Playoff Loss a Lesson in the Power of Turnover

So we have turnover at the top, and the Champ is dead. Long live the new champ, until next January. The reason is turnovers, but it’s not what you think. Yes, the Packers had turnovers in this game: costly fumbles by John Kuhn in the first half, Aaron Rodgers in the third quarter when the Packers were moving into score, and then Ryan Grant late when the Packers were still trying a comeback (Rodgers threw an interception late, but it played no role in the outcome). Those are not necessarily the turnovers to which I am referring.

As this is the eighth straight year when the league’s best record has failed to win the Super Bowl (The 2003 Patriots were the last team to pull it off), and as more than half of them had failed to even win a game, I thought I would take a look back at the present and past best records in the league, and see what has changed. (There were a few seasons where teams tied for best record, I went by the #1 seed, and if both conferences had a #1 seed with the same record, best point difference).

On the surface, just looking at records, point differences, and schedules, nothing has changed for the “best” teams. The last 8 years, the team with the best record has had more average wins, and a slightly higher “simple rating system” rating than the previously. Here is a summary for each 8 year period since 1978 (excluding 1982 and 1987 for strike-shortened years):

The offenses have been higher powered, the defenses have been slightly worse on average, and the overall team quality is certainly not worse in the regular season. If we look at their opponents, by the way, we see one of the reasons why there have been more upsets recently, compared to the past, particularly in the Divisional Round. The opponents are better.

The opponents have the highest overall rating, and highest defensive rating, compared to past opponents for our teams with the best record. Still, the team with the best record should be better, and that can only explain part of it, not why teams are now losing more than they win when they enter the playoffs with the best record. So what gives? In this case, if we dig a little deeper, it’s that turnovers make things look better than they are.

Turnovers are random, but they are very important in deciding the outcome of individual games. We saw that this weekend, where the Saints could not quite overcome having four more turnovers against the 49ers, the Texans could not overcome four more turnovers than the Ravens, and the Packers could not keep pace with the Giants by giving away possessions. Teams in the NFL, particularly in the playoffs, are close enough that giving up the ball in disadvantageous positions is hard to overcome.

So, we know they are random, largely. This does not mean that an individual player can’t make a particularly great play, or an offensive player a bone-headed one. It’s just that the particularly timing of turnovers is often luck and random bounces or tips. Still, when a team builds its success of generating turnovers, we imbue them with magical powers and traits. They just know how to win, they are gamers, they surrender yards but not points because they have playmakers.

The largest impact, then, is probably turnovers, which cause “best” teams to not be as good as they appear to be. Back at midseason, I wrote about the Packers place among the 8-0 teams, and how their turnovers on defense were masking the bad yardage differential. If you want to look at how teams will do going forward, you should probably discount turnovers and look at yards per play.

So, what happens if, rather than looking the year in which the upset occurred, we compare the teams by their pass offense and defense by net yards per attempt ranking in the league, versus their turnover margin ranking. If the team has a higher turnover margin ranking than passing rate stat ranking, we might suspect they are not as good as their record and point difference suggest. Here are the bottom eight teams in terms of turnover margin versus passing yards per play, among the teams with a league’s best record:

• 1997 Kansas City Chiefs (20th in Off. Pass, 16th in Def. Pass, 3rd in Turnovers): Lost Divisional Round to Denver
• 2011 Green Bay Packers (1st in Off. Pass, 30th in Def. Pass, 2nd in Turnovers): Lost Divisional Round to NY Giants
• 2010 New England Patriots (2nd in Off. Pass, 23rd in Def. Pass, 1st in Turnovers): Lost Divisional Round to NY Jets
• 1995 Kansas City Chiefs (23rd in Off. Pass, 1st in Def. Pass, 1st in Turnovers): Lost Divisional Round to Indianapolis
• 1980 Atlanta Falcons (8th in Off. Pass, 13th in Def. Pass, 1st in Turnovers): Lost Divisional Round to Dallas
• 1983 Washington Redskins (2nd in Off. Pass, 22nd in Def. Pass, 3rd in Turnovers): Lost Super Bowl to Los Angeles Raiders
• 2008 Tennessee Titans (16th in Off. Pass, 4th in Def. Pass, 2nd in Turnovers): Lost Divisional Round to Baltimore
• 2002 Philadelphia Eagles (19th in Off. Pass, 2nd in Def. Pass, 4th in Turnovers): Lost Championship Game to Tampa Bay

That’s 6 losses in the first game at home, another home loss in the 2nd game, and a Super Bowl loss in large fashion by the one team that got that far: 3-8 in the playoffs.

The current trend, then, appears to be only because, for whatever reason, the top teams have had turnover luck that belied their underlying performance more often in recent years. Half of those teams with the best record are since the 2002 expansion and move to 8 divisions.

Turnovers seem to explain a lot about why teams have lost playoff games, after looking so good before getting there. Then again, the biggest factor is also probably randomness, but like how we search for answers and attribute traits to teams with turnover luck, it’s wholly unsatisfactory to throw our hands up and just say: “things aren’t as predictable as we like to believe.” Even if that is the closest to the truth.

[photo via Getty]