Jeremy Lin MVP Debate: In This Shortened Season, Does He Have a Shot?

LeBron James is still clearly your MVP leader. Sure, he’s slowing down after a torrid start, but 28 points, 8.2 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game is still an incredible season. The Heat have the NBA’s best record. LeBron’s shooting a career-best 54 percent from the field and 39 percent on three-pointers. Kevin Durant’s been outstanding (27.6 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 51 percent shooting), and Kevin Love’s had an awesome season so far (25.6 points, 14.2 rebounds; 4th and 2nd in the NBA, respectively). Both will surely finish in the Top 5.

Let’s briefly explore the voting process, which I pulled from this press release last year announcing Derrick Rose as the winner:

"The fan vote counted as one vote and was compiled with the 120 media votes to determine the winner. Players were awarded 10 points for each first-place vote, seven points for each second-place vote, five for third, three for fourth and one for each fifth-place vote received."

Have you seen how gushy the media has been, coast-to-coast, about Jeremy Lin? There’s a lot to gush about, and Lin is a mortal lock to be the best story in sports this year. Fickle media: LeBron’s got two MVPs, he does have Wade and Bosh …

Let’s look at how Jeremy Lin saved New York’s season. They were 8-15 before he erupted for 28 points against the Nets. Mike D’Antoni’s job was in jeopardy. Carmelo Anthony was hurt. New York, which was excited about a full season of Melo & Amare, was floundering. They didn’t resemble a playoff team. Then Lin carried journeymen like Bill Walker and Steve Novak to eight wins in nine games. The Knicks rapidly improved on both ends without their best player. New York is now tied with Boston in the Atlantic.

(Some, like Jason Terry and Deron Williams, still aren’t impressed.)

There are 34 games left in the season. Carmelo Anthony rejoins the team tonight just in time for a rematch with Jersey, and let’s say, for the sake of argument, Lin’s terrific play continues and the Knicks stay hot (even though the schedule gets considerably more difficult). Let’s say the Knicks go … 24-12 the rest of the way to finish 40-28. Let’s say they win the Atlantic over Philly by a game and secure a top three seed in the East. (That’s actually crucial to this argument – win the division – regardless of what happens to Boston and Philly – and Lin’s definitely in contention for the MVP.)

Now, the stats: Jeremy Lin, in the last nine games: 25.2 points, 9.2 assists per game. The 5.8 turnovers are troubling, but he’s also averaging 2.2 steals and shooting 50 percent from the field. Yes, it’s a very small sample size. Nobody expects him to keep scoring at such an insane clip when ‘Melo returns. But perhaps his assists go up and turnovers go down?

How’s this: Lin ends the season averaging 17.5 ppg, 10.1 apg, and the Knicks win the Atlantic. MVP? He’ll have similar numbers to the second time Nash won MVP.

I think about 10 games into the Lin/Melo pairing, we’ll know if he’s a legit MVP candidate. And that’s the Asian-American kid from Harvard, not the former champ at Syracuse.