NCAA Tournament Bubble: Championship Week is Here
By Jason Lisk
The NCAA Tournament “Bubble” is an ever-moving target and here’s a conference-by-conference breakdown. Teams and conferences are listed by the order in which the conference tournaments begin, and not necessarily the day that they begin playing.
Already in:
NCAA Tournament, They’re Dancing: Murray State
NCAA Tournament, They’re Dancing: Belmont
NCAA Tournament, They’re Dancing: UNC-Asheville
BIG EAST (Starts Tuesday, IN: Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Louisville)
West Virginia: Bubbly with loss to Connecticut, Bubbly (Likely Out) with loss to DePaul, In with a win over Connecticut.
Connecticut: Out with loss to DePaul; Bubbly with loss to West Virginia, In with a win over West Virginia.
Seton Hall: Out with loss to Providence, Bubbly (Leaning Out) with loss to Louisville, In with a win over Louisville.
South Florida: Out with loss to Rutgers/Villanova, Bubbly (Likely Out) with loss to Notre Dame, In with win over Notre Dame.
ATLANTIC 10 (Tuesday, IN: Temple, St. Louis)
St. Joseph’s: Out if Lose before Final, Bubbly (Leaning In) if beat St. Bonaventure and Temple to reach Final.
Xavier: Out if Lose before semifinal to Dayton/George Washington, Bubbly (Leaning Out) if lose in Semifinals, In if reach Final.
Dayton: Out if Lose to George Washington or Xavier, Bubbly (Likely Out) if beat Xavier and lose in semis, In if beat Xavier and St. Louis to reach Finals.
PAC-12 (Wednesday, IN: None)
California: Bubbly with Loss to Stanford/Arizona State, In if reach the Semis
Washington: Out with Loss to Washington State/Oregon State, Bubbly with Loss to Arizona/UCLA, In if reach Final
Oregon: Out with Loss to Colorado/Utah, Bubbly with Loss to California, In with win over California to reach Final, Bubbly if win over someone else to reach final.
Arizona: Out if Lose before Final, Bubbly (Leaning In) if reach Final with win over Washington, Bubbly if reach Final by beating someone else in semis.
ACC (Starts Thursday, IN: North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, Virginia)
NC State: Out with Loss to Boston College or Virginia, Bubbly with Win over Virginia, In if reach Tournament Final
Miami: Out with Loss to Georgia Tech or Florida State, Bubbly (Likely In) with win over Florida State, In if reach Tournament Final
BIG XII (Wednesday, IN: Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State)
Texas: Bubbly (Likely Out) with Loss to Iowa State, Bubbly (Likely In) with Win over Iowa State, In if reach Title Game.
CONFERENCE USA (Wednesday, IN: Memphis)
Southern Miss: Bubbly (Leaning Still In) with loss to Rice/East Carolina in quarterfinals, In with a Win.
Central Florida: Bubbly with wins over UAB/Tulane and Memphis to reach Championship Game, depending on who they play in final.
BIG TEN (Thursday, IN: Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue)
Northwestern: Out with Loss to Minnesota, Bubbly with Loss to Michigan, In with Win over Michigan
Illinois: Bubbly if reach Big Ten Title Game (wins over Iowa, Michigan State, and Wisconsin/Indiana winner)
Minnesota: Bubbly if reach Big Ten Title Game (wins over Purdue, Michigan, and Ohio State/Northwestern winner)
MOUNTAIN WEST (Thursday, IN: UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State)
Colorado State: Out with Loss to TCU, Bubbly (Leaning Out) with Loss to San Diego State, In with win over San Diego State
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE (Thursday, IN: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt)
Alabama: Bubbly if Lose to South Carolina, Otherwise In
Tennessee: Out with Loss to Ole Miss/Auburn, Bubbly (Likely Out) with Loss to Vanderbilt/Mississippi State, In if reach SEC Final
Mississippi State: Out with Loss to Georgia, Bubbly (Leaning Out) with Loss to Vanderbilt, In with Win over Vanderbilt
MID-MAJORS (IN: Wichita State, Creighton, Murray State, Gonzaga, St. Mary’s)
Drexel vs VCU— The winner gets the automatic bid. The loser will be Bubbly and right on the cut line. If I were to guess, I would say that VCU (RPI=59) would be in slightly better shape than Drexel (RPI=69) if needing an at-large.
Harvard– Have clinched at least a share of Ivy League. If Penn forces playoff by winning Tuesday, and Harvard loses the playoff game, will be Bubbly (Likely In).
Nevada– Out if Lose to anyone but New Mexico State, Bubbly (Likely Out) if Lose to New Mexico State in WAC Final
Long Beach State– Out if Lose before Final, Bubbly (Leaning Out) if Lose in Final.
Oral Roberts– Out if Lose before Final, Bubbly if Lose to South Dakota State.
BYU–Done, and sitting squarely on the Bubble Cut Line as we await other results
Middle Tennessee– Done, and Likely Out
Iona–Done, and Leaning Out
[photo via US Presswire]