The Big Lead

Bracket and Bubble Watch: As Bubble Teams Are Eliminated, the Battle For the Last Two Number One Seeds Becomes Focus of Selection Eve

By Jason Lisk

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  • Ole Miss, still playing in the semis right now against Vanderbilt, must be out and need that auto bid. That’s what I have, and it sounds like what the committee has.
  • The Pac-12 final sounds like a play-in game for the auto bid, with the loser not being in the at-large pool. I have Arizona and Colorado out if they lose as well.
  • What does it mean for NC State? Who knows. Did their last second loss to North Carolina knock them out or keep them in? I think they are squarely on the bubble, I have them in after the Virginia win, but I’m not sure we can read either way.
  • Xavier, who I thought must be in, has to be in the at large pool after their win over Dayton, with the game ongoing against St. Louis. I can’t imagine the committee would have ruled them out before the St. Louis result.
  • If St. Bonaventure wins the A-10, my guess is the committee knows who they will kick out. I can’t imagine they have the Bonnies in unless they get the auto bid.
  • As for anyone else (Washington, Seton Hall, the various mid-majors like Drexel and Iona and BYU) I’m not sure we can read anything.

 

Turning to the top seeds, Kentucky locked up the first overall seed with the win over Florida. Syracuse is safely in the second spot and should be on the opposite side of the bracket. Kansas’ loss throws it completely wide open, and makes it very unlikely that the Jayhawks can get a #1, especially after North Carolina and Michigan State both advanced to their conference finals today.

Here’s my guess for the priority for the #1 seeds:

1. The ACC Winner if it is North Carolina or Duke;

2. The Big Ten Winner if Ohio State advances and it is a Michigan State/Ohio State showdown;

3. Missouri if they beat Baylor, and either Michigan or Florida State win the Big Ten or ACC, respectively;

4. Kansas, if Missouri loses, and either Michigan or Florida State win the Big Ten or ACC, respectively.

 

The guess here is that, even if Missouri cannot get a #1 without help, they are playing to be in St. Louis instead of Kansas, opposite the Big Ten tournament champion. Kansas will go out West with the ACC Champ in that scenario, with the Big Ten and ACC runners up heading to Kentucky and Syracuse’s bracket. If Missouri loses, they likely get paired with Kentucky. Baylor probably cannot surpass anyone to move to a 2-seed, but will get placement as the highest 3 on the S-Curve.

Meanwhile, Louisville and Cincinnati are both playing for seeding and making a huge jump near the 4/5/6 line after running through the Big East. We saw Connecticut surge to a #3 seed with a run a year ago.

Here’s my best guesses on seeding entering tonight, with Drexel/BYU, California and Iona the last four in, and Washington, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Mississippi State, and Oral Roberts out. Even though the committee is done with the at-larges, I’ll put them all under the scope tonight now that they are done.

[photo via US Presswire]