I made my projections, then St. Bonaventure went out and won the Atlantic-10, and notably actually won their way into the tournament for a team that, while having a pretty decent season, was not otherwise going to make it in. As a result, I am bumping South Florida off my last in list.
How do the guys at some of the notable sites see things breaking out? Of course, we have Joe Lunardi of ESPN. Also included are CBS (Jerry Palm), Sports Illustrated (Andy Glockner), Yahoo (Brad Evans), and Fox Sports (Andy Bottoms) . In addition, I have the picks from Crashing the Dance, which uses an algorithm to try to project most likely teams based on history of selections.
There are 29 teams where all of these agree on their inclusion as an at-large prior to the last 4 in (first four game participant). In addition, there are multiple teams where they all agree on their inclusion, though some have them in the Last Four In, and others do not (Colorado State, BYU, Texas, Xavier, California, Seton Hall). Yes, all of them have Seton Hall in, though just barely in as one of the last two to three teams in virtually everyone. So, the Pirates are right on the cut line if the committee thinks just a little bit less or is influenced by how the Pirates looked in the last few weeks.
NC State was also in everyone’s Last 4 in until St. Bonaventure. Half of them moved the Wolfpack out. South Florida, Drexel and Iona join them as the teams with the most disagreement. Andy Glockner and Crashing the Dance still have Marshall tenuously hanging. Meanwhile, Northwestern fans, Jerry Palm still believes in you. (He was the only one with VCU last year, so we shall see if having Northwestern is in the committee’s plans). It’s interesting because they are almost universally not even in the First 4 out for most others. Here is a summary.
In total, everyone has Seton Hall in. 3 of the 6 have NC State, Drexel and South Florida in. 2 have Marshall in, while 1 has Iona in (but most of the rest have them barely out), and 1 has Northwestern. We shall see in an hour.
[photo via US Presswire]