NCAA Tournament Stat Models: VCU Most Likely To Pull First Round Upset, Kentucky and Michigan State Most Likely Winners
By Ty Duffy
Most Likely Upsets: Analyzing tournament upsets since 2004, John Ezekowitz found that the teams that pull them off commit fewer turnovers, grab more rebounds and played a strong schedule during the season. He predicts the most likely upsets are:
(12) VCU vs. (5) Wichita State (72.0 percent, Wichita State -6.5)
(11) N.C. State vs. (6) San Diego St. (61.8 percent, N.C. State -2.5)
(13) Ohio vs. (4) Michigan (54.7 percent, Michigan -5.5)
(12) Cal (if they get in) vs. (5) Temple (54.2 percent)
Long Beach St., Colorado St. and St. Bonaventure all have win probabilities greater than 40 percent. Montana has just a three percent chance to upset Wisconsin.
Survival Model: When I read the words “adjacency matrix” my brain began crying out for help. Ezekowitz provides a lengthy explanation. From what I gather, he attempted to model how a team would perform in tournament games as opposed to how strong they were during the regular season. He factors in performance against tournament teams and consistency as well as overall team strength. He ranked every team for the lowest risk of losing.
Presuming Fab Melo’s absence would lower Syracuse, his final four would be Kentucky, Michigan State, Ohio State and Kansas. Lower seeds to like: Memphis (No. 8, ranked eighth overall and higher than any 3 seed), St. Louis (9), VCU (12) and Belmont (14). Higher seeds to stay away from: Duke (2), Marquette (3), Florida State (3) and Michigan (4).
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