Sweet 16 Preview: No 13-seed or Lower Has Ever Beaten a No. 1 Seed
By Jason Lisk
#1 North Carolina vs. #13 Ohio, Midwest Regional. #1 seeds are a combined 21-0 all-time against #12 and #13 Cinderellas that have advanced to the Sweet 16 since 1985. A few have come close, but none have been able to break through with the massive upset. So, while we still await a #16 beating a #1 seed, Ohio would settle for doing something else that has never been done -upsetting a #1 seed in the Sweet Sixteen.
#1 Syracuse vs. #4 Wisconsin, East Regional, #1 Kentucky vs. #4 Indiana, South Regional, and #1 Michigan State vs. #4 Louisville, West Regional. The other #1 seeds have it tougher. #1 seeds are 27-11 (71%) since 1985 against 4 seeds. I may go through some of those matchups to find the most similar ones to each of these later.
#2 Ohio State vs. #6 Cincinnati, East Regional. The Battle of Ohio, a game that has only been played once in the regular season since the Bearcats beat the Buckeyes in the tournament in 1961-1962, is going to garner lots of interest. #2 seeds have gone 19-6 since 1985 against #6 seeds.
#2 Kansas vs. #11 NC State, Midwest Regional. There have been 10 games between a #2 and a #11, and the 2 seed has won 9 of the 10. That one, though, has some interesting parallels to NC State. In 1986, Dale Brown’s LSU Tigers went 1-7 against tournament teams from their conference, but got in the tournament when they beat Florida in the 4/5 matchup. They then lost to conference champ Kentucky for the third time in a close game. LSU pulled upsets to get to the Sweet Sixteen, then beat #2 Georgia Tech, before proving that the fourth time is a charm, and upsetting Kentucky to advance to the Final Four. NC State can pull the same feat with upsets of Kansas and North Carolina.
#3 Marquette vs. #7 Florida, West Regional. Only 8 matchups have involved a 3 versus a 7. The #3 has won 6 of the 8. The two #7’s to win were Xavier over Texas in 2004, and Temple over Vanderbilt in 1993.
#3 Baylor vs. #10 Xavier, South Regional. Interestingly, there have been more 3/10 matchups than 3/7 matchups, and the 3 seed is only 8-4 in those games. The 10 seeds that advanced out of that pairing include two memorable mid-majors from the past decade: Davidson over Wisconsin in 2008 and Kent State over Pittsburgh in 2002. Baylor was the last 3 to beat a 10 in the Sweet Sixteen, when they did it in 2010 against St. Mary’s, and will try to do it again.
Other Random Notes to set up your Sweet Sixteen:
– A team seeded 3 or lower is participating in every game in the Sweet Sixteen. That last happened from 2007 to 2009, and five other times since 1985 (1987, 1989, 1991, 1993 and 1995).
– Pittsburgh and Villanova in 2009 was the last time two teams from the same conference met in a Regional Final. It would take some upsets, but there are three different possibilities entering the Sweet Sixteen (Marquette and Louisville in the West, North Carolina and NC State in the Midwest, and Ohio State and Wisconsin in the East [update: plus Syracuse and Cincinnati in the East as well]–geography ftw). The only other time that has happened? 1990, when Duke-Clemson, Texas-Arkansas, and Michigan State-Minnesota were in the same regionals as conference foes. Only Texas versus Arkansas materialized.
– For the third straight year, no regional will feature the top 4 seeds advancing. It had happened in each of the three years prior.
– Kansas is 10-2 since 1985 as the better seed in the Sweet Sixteen, Kentucky is 11-2, Michigan State 5-1, and North Carolina 13-1. Meanwhile, Syracuse is only 4-3 as the better seed in this round, and Ohio State is 2-3. Marquette has not been the better seed in the Sweet Sixteen since 1985, and Baylor only once (beat St. Mary’s in 2010).
[US Presswire]