The Texas Rangers Could Be Great in 2012, Though Approaching the 1998 Yankees is a Longshot

Verducci writes the following:

"With Hamilton at the peak of his game, the Rangers, too, have the look of a team that may be historic. Texas is destroying American League competition. This could be the best team since the 1998 Yankees. It has no weakness. The Rangers have scored the most runs and allowed the fewest in the league. In the third year of a run-scoring recession around baseball, the Rangers are hammering teams. They have outscored opponents by 2.2 runs per game. The next closest team in the league, Toronto, has a run differential of only 0.6."

Texas’ run differential impresses, though it’s still a small sample size. We can assume based on past performance and projections entering the season the Rangers success is no fluke, though it would be prudent to take the under on Josh Hamilton playing 150 games, hitting 79 home runs and batting .400. Maintaining an elite level of success over a 162 game season is hard.

The Rangers have started 23-14 with a run differential of +75. Their actual winning percentage (.622) is much lower than their expected winning percentage given that differential (.690). The latter pace, over an entire season, would leave them in range of the 1998 Yankees, with 111 wins.

Will they keep up their torrid pace? We looked up every hot start to May 15 since 1998, defined either by a .700 W-L% or an expected W-L% of .675. There were 13 such seasons, including the 1998 Yankees. Here’s how they started vs. how they finished.

1998 Yankees – (26-9) .731 (.631) *** (88-39) .693 (.681) [114-48]
1998 Braves – (31-11) .738 (.708) *** (75-45) .625 (.635) [106-56]
1999 Indians – (26-9) .743 (.671) *** (71-56) .559 (.543) [97-63]
2000 Diamondbacks – (26-11) .703 (.651) *** (59-66) .472 (.482) [85-77]
2000 Red Sox (23-12) .657 (.710) *** (62-65) .488 (.477) [85-77]
2001 Mariners – (29-9) .763 (.643) *** (87-37) .702 (.680) [116-46]
2001 Twins – (26-11) .703 (.596) *** (59-66) .472 (.478) [85-77]
2002 Red Sox – (27-9) .750 (.730) *** (66-60) .524 (.578) [93-69]
2003 Yankees – (27-13) .675 (.677) *** (74-48) .607 (.561) [101-61]
2005 White Sox – (27-11) .711 (.614) *** (72-52) .581 (.548) [99-63]
2007 Red Sox – (26-12) .684 (.692) *** (70-54) .565 (.604) [96-66]
2010 Rays – (25-11) .694 (.740) *** (71-55) .563 (.554) [96-66]
2010 Yankees – (24-12) .667 (.700) *** (71-55) .563 (.567) [95-67]

Seven of the 13 teams regressed to an expected W-L% between .540 and .610 and won between 93 and 101 games. Another three dipped below .500 the rest of the season to finish with 85 wins. The 1998 Braves fell off the pace slightly to finish with 106 wins. Just two of the 13, the 1998 Yankees and the 2001 Mariners, kept it up the entire season. They finished with 114 wins and 116 wins respectively.

Why those two seasons happened is not difficult to explain. Both the 1998 Yankees and the 2001 Mariners scored a ton of runs and had excellent starting pitching. Virtually everyone stayed healthy.

The 1998 Yankees had six of nine hitters have an OPS+ of 120 or higher and 8/9 hitters have 17 or more home runs. They had four starters make 28 or more starts. The worst of them was Andy Pettitte (16-11, 4.24 ERA). The fifth starter was a platoon of El Duque (12-4, 3.13 ERA) and Ramiro Mendoza (10-2, 3.25 ERA).

Similarly, the 2001 Mariners had Olerud, Boone, Cameron, Ichiro and Edgar Martinez post an OPS+ of 123 or better. Freddy Garcia, Aaron Sele and Jamie Moyer each made every start, threw more than 200 innings and had a 3.60 ERA or better. In 11 starts, Joel Pineiro went 6-2 with a 2.03 ERA and a .942 WHIP.

The 2012 Rangers theoretically have the lineup and the pitching staff that could have that type of season. So did a number of teams on that list. Texas has an advantage those two clubs did not, playing in an awful division, but, even so, to get into the discussion with the Yankees and the Mariners, the Rangers would have to have multiple career years coincide and everyone stay healthy. It’s far more likely the Rangers “only” win 95-100 games and make a strong run at the World Series. The Rangers are off to a great, 23-14 start, but so are the Baltimore Orioles.

[Photo via Presswire]