NFL Over/Under Totals For 2012 Are Out, and Vegas is Counting on Over-Optimism For New England and Green Bay

Cantor Gaming is the first Vegas bookmaker to release Over/Under Win Totals for the 2012 Season. The first thing that caught my eye are the win totals for Green Bay and New England. Both of these teams were listed at 11.5 wins last year, and both went over that number in 2011 in securing their conferences’ top seeds. So, this year, that number has bumped even higher, to 12.0 wins for each, a full 2 wins more than any other teams (Houston, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and San Francisco are all at 10.0).

In light of both teams’ performance last year, they are even expecting the action to be heavier on the Over side, with the listed money lines requiring more to take that side (-125 for GB and -120 for NE).

There’s a big difference between 11.5 and 12, though. To take either team over, they must win 13 games. History is not kind to that proposition. Since 1990, there have been 46 teams that went 13-3 or better in a season. Only five of them won 13 games or more again the following season, and five more pushed at 12 wins, with an average win total of 9.5 wins the next year.

You can still like Green Bay and New England as two of the favorites and take the Under. Over half those teams still made the playoffs, and five of them reached the Super Bowl while winning 11 or 12 games in the regular season: Buffalo in 1992, Dallas in 1993, Denver in 1997, Pittsburgh in 2005, and Indianapolis in 2006.

Other notable ones: The defending Super Bowl Champion Giants are at 9.5 wins. Denver is also listed at 9.5, and I lean toward the Under there. Dallas, Chicago, and the Jets are all at 8.5 wins, trying to entice public teams with large fan bases who think they can have winning seasons. Carolina is at 7.5, and I’ve already talked about liking them. Cleveland, Indianapolis and Jacksonville bring up the bottom of the list, at 5.5 wins each.

If the playoffs followed the over/under projections, the playoff seeds would be Green Bay, Philadelphia, New Orleans, San Francisco, NY Giants, and Detroit in the NFC, and New England, Houston, Pittsburgh, Denver, Baltimore, and San Diego in the AFC.

[photo via US Presswire]

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