Euro 2012 Quarterfinals: Spain Vs. France

Spain excited at Euro 2008 and played more conservatively at World Cup 2010. They have continued this downward progression this cycle, becoming ponderous to excess when faced with any reasonable opposition (sorry, Ireland). The Spanish have held possession, but seldom looked dangerous with it. They have been slow, one dimensional and, lacking width or an aerial threat, unable to stretch defenses. So, why not just fix this with a striker and a more natural wide player like Navas?

It is the attackers smothering the ball for Spain, but the system’s ultimate value comes as a defensive strategy. A team without the ball can’t threaten, tires itself mentally and physically chasing and rushes chances it receives knowing it will receive so few of them. Del Bosque’s consideration may not be how potent to be up front, but how much Spain can afford to leave its makeshift back line exposed. We have yet to see that unit seriously tested. Spain’s soporific possession play has been a major reason why.

France had dressing room issues again, though after losing 2-0 to a team with nothing to play for one would be more concerned if they were content. Despite the managerial change, the French grapple with the same questions they did in 2008 and 2010. How to get abundant talent to perform in synchrony? How to maintain effective performance for 90 minutes? Blanc has not found an answer yet.

The French must play on the back foot against Spain, though that may benefit them. Their strength is counterattacking in open field at a forced high tempo. Whether they can finish (paging Karim Benzema…) is one question. Whether they can hold out against Spain defensively is another.

Spain Squad: Same deal we saw against Italy. 4-5-1 (or 4-6-0) with Cesc Fabregas as the lead striker.

France Squad: Blanc opted not to start Samir Nasri, inserting veteran right back Anthony Reveillere and pushing right back Mathieu Debuchy forward into midfield. It should look like a 4-4-1-1 Debuchy, Cabaye, M’Vila and Malouda as a bank of four, Benzema up front and Ribery in a free role behind. This is a concession they aren’t going to beat Spain playing straight up. It’s a bold move. France will flood the midfield in front of the back four and hope to hit them on the counter attack.

Why is Nasri the man out? He has not looked great since his performance against England. Though an excellent creative midfielder he has the tendency to take an extra touch or two on the ball and slow down attacks, part of the reason France’s tempo often slowed to a crawl in the group stages. The only real option for him in this system would be to replace Ribery. Ribery is far more direct and better suited for counterattacks.

Prediction: Spain eeks out a 1-0 win.

[Photo via Getty]