Euro 2012 Semifinals: Germany vs. Italy

Undefeated: Germany and Italy have met nine times in competitive play. The Italians have never lost. Italy won the 1970 World Cup Semifinal in which the teams went into extra time 1-1 and the Italians walked away with a 4-3 win. Italy won the 1982 World Cup Final 3-1. Italy won the 2006 World Cup semifinal 2-0 in extra time. Present players aren’t burdened by past players’ sins. Historical stats hold virtually no meaning. The best team wins out, unless England are in a penalty shootout.

Well Rested: Germany had two extra days off and Italy played 120 minutes in their match on Sunday. This exacerbates the younger Germans’ already present fitness advantage, at a stage in the season where everyone runs on fumes. Italy switched back from a 3-5-2, at least partly to reduce the physical demands on certain players. The short turn around could be particularly hard on aging Andrea Pirlo, expected to control the midfield.

Matchup: Broadly, both teams are built to hold possession. The Germans have the second most touches of any team at Euro 2012, and the second fewest number of turnovers. The Italians may have an advantage in central midfield, both in numbers and ball-playing ability. That said, the Germans are strong up the middle defensively and very dynamic down the wings going forward. Both teams create chances, though Italy has not converted theirs. They have scored just gone goal from open play in four matches.

It will be interesting to see how Germany counters Pirlo. Positionally, the forward in the hole behind the lead striker is best placed to close him down, but Germany faces the same dilemma England faced. England used Rooney to mark Pirlo. This blunted their most creative player. It also put a player not inclined to defend and not especially adept it performing the most crucial defensive role on the pitch. Mesut Ozil is the natural player positioned to close down Pirlo, but doing so might lead to similar, disappointing results.

Squad Changes: For Italy, Chiellini is back in the lineup at left back, with Barzagli sliding over to right back replacing Abate. Montolivo, who played well against England, will stay in midfield ahead of Thiago Motta. For Germany, Klose will start up front again ahead of Gomez. Gomez starts up front ahead of Klose. Music sensation Lukas Podolski returns to the starting XI after an unimpressive performance from Andre Schurrle against Greece. Toni Kroos, used previously as a late match substitute, goes into the squad ahead of Thomas Muller and Marco Reus.

Kroos gives Germany many options. He can play either defensively or in an advanced position in a three-man midfield. He can also be lined up as an attacker down the wing. More defensively sound than Ozil, he may be Low’s solution to the Pirlo conundrum.

Pressure: All the pressure is on Germany here. They are the favorites. They entered the tournament with the win or bust mandate. They have to add a trophy to the nearly decade-long run of success in the Low/Klinsmann era. Italy has little pressure, having already surpassed expectations. This could make them complacent. It could leave them level-headed should Germany come out wound tight.

Prediction: This should be a bit more open than Spain/Portugal. Germany advances with a 2-1 win.

[Photo via Getty]