Here is a Top 150, using my previous rankings at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. I did not include kickers and defenses because, well, I don’t draft them in my top 150. If you want to pull the trigger early on defense or kicker, that’s your call. We all have our own personal issues we have to deal with.
These rankings are based on multiple baselines to try to assess value (compared to starter, top backup, and roster spot baselines). They are PPR (which is why some of the running back order changes), and based on a 12-team league. I’ve also made a few tweaks based on injuries and preseason games where I thought it was appropriate.
It is color coded. Players where I have ranked lower than the average consensus are marked in 0range if at least 10 spots different, and red if at least 20 spots different. For players I am higher on than the average, I have marked with light green (10 spots) and darker green (20 or more spots). Drafting is art and science. I would not recommend going straight off this list. Use the color codes. Try to get Green players a round or two later, and after round 9, maybe even three or four rounds later. Winning teams maximize talent early, and build value late.
The first group of thirty is pretty much in line with consensus, with ordering slightly different in spots. I think Mathews and Lynch have more value than their drops, and would pull the trigger at the end of round 2 or start of round 3.
The next group of 30 shows that my value rankings start to find value in those second tier of quarterbacks who can start. Many of them show up in green, meaning you can wait a round and find value there.
I adjusted the Pittsburgh situation to reflect Rashard Mendenhall coming off the PUP and Redman’s injury. I think that situation is a mess and the only one I have as value is Dwyer, who is going way lower and probably undrafted in most leagues.
I adjusted other situations as well, including Detroit, to move Kevin Smith up as Jahvid Best seems very unlikely to contribute. I shifted the New England situation, and Washington also, to reflect the possibility of a more even split.
[photo via US Presswire]