St. Louis Rams 2012 NFL Preview
By Jason Lisk
Jeff Fisher chose the St. Louis Rams for many reasons over the Miami Dolphins, from ownership to his comfort level, but two factors probably also played a role: the presence of a perceived franchise passer in 2010 first overall pick Sam Bradford (whereas the Dolphins had Matt Moore), and the second overall pick in a draft where that pick was quite valuable (while the Dolphins won just enough to slide to #9).
The Rams, of course, chose Jeff Fisher because he represented stability and competency in an era where St. Louis has demonstrated precious little of both. Whether that belief is rewarded remains to be seen–history is littered with successful coaches who tried it again elsewhere to less effect. St. Louis has gone 15-65 over the last five seasons, and almost half of those wins came in the somewhat fluky 2010 season when the Seahawks won the daunting NFC West over the Rams with a losing record.
How bad is that? It’s the worst winning percentage of the 16-game era over a five year span. Worse than the Matt Millen-era Detroit Lions that became a laughingstock. Worse than the Oakland Raiders who were coached by ten different coaches and had an offensive coordinator who came straight from running a bed and breakfast in the middle of this decade. Worse than the worst Bungling of the Bungles. Worse than the Creamsicle Buccaneers of the 1980’s.
I don’t get the sense that the Rams have garnered as much scorn as some of those other dreadful eras for franchises–no catchy nicknames, no public figure like Millen upon whom to heap scorn. It’s more indifference in most parts. They have been just about as bad as any franchise in the history of the NFL over a five year span, though.
Fisher will bring in his guys, and upgrade the talent in St. Louis. It would be difficult not to do so. Cortland Finnegan has joined Fisher from Tennessee at cornerback, and the Rams took a chance on the talented Janoris Jenkins at the other corner spot. Jo-Lonn Dunbar and Mario Haggan signed with the team and will play on either side of James Laurinitis. St. Louis didn’t follow the draft expert expectations of adding a receiver like Justin Blackmon, opting to trade down for Michael Brockers at defensive tackle, while hoping that Brian Quick becomes that playmaker at wide receiver at a later price. The addition of Brockers gives them three first round picks starting on the line, along with Chris Long and Robert Quinn.
On offense, it’s mostly about better health. Sam Bradford got hurt early and played through injuries. His leading receiver from the year before, Danny Amendola, missed the entire season. The offensive line was decimated by injuries, with only 71% of games started by their projected starters. Both tackles missed the second half of the season, putting the offense in dire straits. Most of those expected starters are back, with Scott Wells, the former center in Green Bay, being the only new addition. The other Steve Smith, who likewise missed a large part of last season with injury, has been added to hopefully provide depth.
It still, though, falls on Bradford as to whether this gambit is ultimately successful. The Rams boldly traded the 2nd pick to get better elsewhere. When you have 15 wins in three years, you have lots of holes. It only works if Bradford is part of the solution when a better supporting cast and better offensive health is part of the equation.
Bradford’s rookie season was vastly overrated because he threw so much. His rate stats weren’t very good, and his numbers last year really weren’t much different even though the narrative was. The most similar player through two seasons is Rick Mirer. Of course, we can’t judge Bradford yet. When can we, though?
A look at all quarterbacks with at least 500 passes thrown in their first two season shows that YPA matters more than other measures. Doug Williams, Vinny Testaverde, Eli Manning, and Michael Vick were in the bottom five in league adjusted completion percentage. Testaverde, Aikman, and Bradshaw were at the bottom in interception rate. Over 70% of all young QBs were below average in touchdown rate in the first two years, and Steve Young was 2nd from the bottom playing for the Buccaneers.
Sam Bradford had the 9th worst YPA (league-adjusted) of the 72 young quarterbacks. Joey Harrington, Jack Trudeau, Kyle Boller and John Friesz were at the very bottom. Donovan McNabb, Steve DeBerg, Jeff George, Doug Williams, and Steve Young do show up in the bottom 25, so we can’t rule out Bradford yet. Joey Harrington got four seasons as a starter in Detroit, probably one more than he should have. If Bradford doesn’t improve this year in his yards per attempt, he could very well be nestled between Joey Harrington and Kyle Boller for worst league adjusted yards per attempt in the first three years (among players with at least 900 career passes).
No more excuses in 2012. No talk about another new offensive coordinator, or his personnel. It is no longer the Greatest Show on Turf, but it should be better this year. It has been a bad situation, but this is the year we see if Fisher’s gambit was correct, and Sam Bradford emerges as a franchise passer. If he takes those steps, the Rams will probably go from historically bad to merely competitively below average in 2012, but with greater hope that this era will be forgotten soon enough.
[photo via US Presswire]