College Football 2012 Preview Week Four: Florida State, Oklahoma and Oregon Have Chance to Make BCS Title Case
By Ty Duffy
This weekend, there will be narratives. We’ll decide whether some teams are “back.” We’ll decide whether others are still here. This fourth slate’s lasting resonance, though, will be handicapping the BCS title race. Florida State, Oklahoma and Oregon are ranked as the most promising candidates to foil Part IV of LSU vs. Alabama in the title game. None of the three has faced what could credibly be termed an opponents. The three teams are each double-digit favorites at home against Top 25 opponents. Saturday night will offer all three an opportunity to state their intentions.
Florida State has a combined score of 176-3 through three games, though their toughest (and only FBS) draw was Wake Forest. Some pundits have been bullish, penciling in the Seminoles to party like it’s 1999. This week, they can display that prowess, against a Top Ten but pregnable Clemson team. It should prove most evident on the front lines.
The Seminoles’ defensive line might be college football’s best. Their best player there, Brandon Jenkins, is out for the season, but, as good as he is, Florida State may not miss him. Clemson’s offensive line has struggled getting a push for Andre Ellington, who was held under four yards per carry by both Ball State and Furman. FSU is allowing 1.19 yards per carry this season. We’d consider that a product of schedule strength, but the Seminoles also led the nation allowing 2.35 yards per carry in 2011. The Tigers have also struggled on the other side of the ball. They rank 107th against FBS opponents, allowing 5.6 yards per carry. That is worse than UMass, and Clemson did not spend a Saturday chasing Denard Robinson.
Florida State should eviscerate Clemson on paper, but they should have done many nasty things on paper over the past decade.
Oklahoma plays Kansas State at home. Norman, generally, has been more hospitable to them. The Sooners crushed a 10-win Kansas State 58-17 in Manhattan last year. Should they go up by a few touchdowns early, the game may be over. The Wildcats have the offense to control games, not claw their way back in them.
The matchup Kansas State must exploit is up front on defense. Oklahoma’s offensive line, with the injuries to Ben Habern and Tyler Evans, turned from asset to possible liability. The Wildcats experienced front seven needs to get pressure on Landry Jones. They must do so because they return most of their secondary that faced Oklahoma last year. Landry Jones completed 35/47 passes for 505 yards and five touchdowns.
Oregon faces their first true opposition as well in Rich Rodriguez’ 3-0 and ranked Arizona team. The Ducks have not been challenged. They have barely been forced to keep their starters on the field. De’Anthony Thomas has touched the ball just 24 times in three games, though those touches have led to seven touchdowns and 382 total yards. Beating Stanford at home and USC twice would give Oregon a resume few could match.
How much of a challenge will Arizona present? A bit of one. Through the third quarter, maybe. Rich Rodriguez is doing far better than we expected. Helping him are three things he did not have at Michigan: a senior quarterback who fits his system, a defensive coordinator he understands and likes and a laid back fan base with few expectations. Arizona’s offense has clicked. Their defense has been less suspect than expected. Statistically, Arizona has outperformed Oregon on both offense and defense against FBS teams against tougher competition.
That said, brake pumping would be wise. Oregon’s offense makes even adroit, athletic defenses look silly. Arizona’s has not proved the latter and is not the former. The Ducks’ defense is perennially underrated and should slow down the Wildcats enough. Oregon could come out flat. They are also talented enough to come out flat and cover the three-touchdown spread.
[Photos via Presswire]
Previously:College Football 2012 Picks: Week Four