College Football 2012: Which Teams Have the Best Chance to Go Undefeated?
By Ty Duffy
Four weeks into the season, there are 27 remaining undefeated teams. Some are strong national title contenders. Some are in for a curt comeuppance. Below, we rank the teams, not on head to head ability but on probability of running the table. We think this Saban fellow might have something in the works down in Tuscaloosa. Not sold on Tuberville.
Alabama [4-0] The Tide beat down Michigan and have allowed one touchdown since. They are first against FBS in yards per play defense. They are legit. They also have a soft schedule, with LSU looking like the only potential hiccup. Maybe the SEC winner will be able to hang, but we’re doubtful.
Florida State [4-0] The Seminoles blew away Clemson in the second half. They have an obscenely forgiving schedule. Florida is the only Top 25 team left and the Seminoles play the Gators at home.
Ohio [4-0] The Bobcats are in the weaker MAC East division. Their best remaining regular season opponent is Kent State. Toledo or Western Michigan in the title game would be beatable. They should run the table. The question is whether doing so will be enough to get them to the BCS.
Oregon [4-0] Chip Kelly is ruthless in the Pac 12. Opening with a 49-0 win over a ranked Arizona suggests little will be different. Games against Stanford and Oregon State are a moderate concern. The true question is whether they can beat USC twice.
LSU [4-0] The offense is a concern. The defense is not. The Tigers allowed Auburn two sustained drives beyond 30 yards, which led to three points. LSU plays Alabama at home, but unlike Alabama they also have Florida and South Carolina on the schedule.
Georgia [4-0] Are the Dawgs better than Florida and South Carolina? We’re not sure yet, but, with no LSU or Bama on the schedule, those games should be the only thing keeping them from going undefeated in the regular season. Then, of course, there is the SEC title game.
Ohio State [4-0] Michigan State on the road and Nebraska at home the following week are the only ranked teams left on the schedule. The Buckeyes have not looked spectacular yet. Spectacular won’t be required the rest of the way. OSU and Ohio U could both finish undefeated and not reach the BCS.
Florida [4-0] The Gators have two SEC road wins notched on their shillelagh. Their only remaining true road game in conference is at Vanderbilt. That’s the positive. The negative? They have four of the present top six left on the schedule, and five of the six should they reach the title game.
South Carolina [4-0] The Gamecocks look much better than they did against Vanderbilt. Are we convinced they will stay stable for 12 games? It will be hard to stay perfect through a three-game October stretch: Georgia, at LSU, at Florida.
Notre Dame [4-0] The Irish have evaded the two Michigan schools. They still have to play Stanford at home and travel to Oklahoma and USC. One would not discount them winning any of those three games, but can they win all three?
Kansas State [4-0] Snyder is going to Snyder. Great win against Oklahoma in Norman last week. We’re not sure who, but at least one team slows down their run game and torches their secondary in the same game to beat them.
West Virginia [3-0] The offense is explosive, though the defense is worrisome. They got torched through the air by Maryland, in a game that might have swung the other way with turnovers. We’ll find out a lot against Baylor and Texas the next two weeks.
Stanford [3-0] Impressive win against USC at home, but they have a long season ahead, with six of their nine remaining on the road. They travel to Washington, to Notre Dame, to Cal, to Oregon and to UCLA.
Oregon State [2-0] Tough games against Wisconsin and on the road to UCLA, but the Beavers’ record remains pristine. The schedule does not get much easier, however. Oregon State must travel to Stanford, Washington, BYU and Arizona. Then there’s the little matter of playing Oregon at home.
TCU [3-0] The Horned Frogs offense seems on point. Their defense has allowed one touchdown in three games. They have yet to face the brunt of a Big 12 schedule, though, and their last five games – at Oklahoma State, at West Virginia, Kansas State, at Texas and Oklahoma – is brutal.
Northwestern [4-0] The Big Ten is soft. The Wildcats do not play Ohio State, Wisconsin or Purdue. They are a legitimate contender to win the conference. There’s no game on the schedule they can’t win. Do they pick off Michigan and Michigan State on the road in consecutive weeks? We’re not so sure.
Rutgers [4-0] The Scarlet Knights have three road FBS wins so far. The only ranked opponent left on the docket is Louisville at home. Can they run the table while being outgained by their opponents on a yards per play basis, though?
Mississippi State [4-0] They looked getting Chizik canned great against Auburn, but underwhelmed against Troy and South Alabama. A solid, 9-10 win season for Dan Mullen’s feasible, but they are not winning at Alabama and at LSU.
Cincinnati [2-0] The jury remains out on the Bearcats. They looked great for a half against Pitt, then turned the ball over six times against Delaware State. Games remain against Virginia Tech, Louisville and Rutgers. There is the track record, though, with the school achieving four 10-win seasons in the last five years.
Louisiana Tech [3-0] We like this Sonny Dykes team. They have an explosive offense and flattened Illinois by four touchdowns last week. Playing Virginia and Texas A&M out of conference may prove too much though.
Texas Tech [3-0] This is not the Year of Tuberville. The Red Raiders have played the nation’s 164th Sagarin ranked schedule thus far. There are 124 teams in FBS. They have a five game stretch beginning Oct. 6: Oklahoma, West Virginia, at TCU, at Kansas State, Texas.
Iowa State [3-0] Their next seven opponents have lost a combined two games this season. We are so proud of Paul Rhoads, but this team will do well to make a bowl game.
Minnesota [4-0] Undefeated? No chance. Especially with quarterback Marqueis Gray being an injury concern. None of their wins are especially impressive. Two Big Ten wins, however, will send Minnesota to a bowl game. That’s an incredible turn around in year two under Jerry Kill.
Texas San-Antonio [4-0] The Roadrunners! They are 4-0 and dead last among FBS teams in SRS, because they have not yet played an FBS team. If they do not fall on one of their road trips the next two weeks, they play San Jose State, Utah State and Louisiana Tech.
[Photos via Presswire]