We are 17-12-1 against the spread this season, 15-8-1 the past four weeks. Here are our picks for week six.
Texas (-6.5) vs. West Virginia: West Virginia travels to Austin for its first Big 12 road game. Both teams have explosive offenses. The Longhorns’ defense has been a concern, but, with NFL-bound athletes, it is the more probable impediment. The public loves them some Holgo. These folks have been burned as WVU has failed to cover in every game since the season opener against Marshall. Open with a line begging for money dumped on the Mountaineers? Hook em.
Army (+9.5) vs. Boston College: This is a terrible matchup for Boston College. Army has a great rushing attack, averaging 5.44 yards per carry, despite rushing it nearly 70 times per game. Boston College ranks 96th vs. FBS in run defense. Army’s biggest vulnerability is stopping the run. Boston College is 119th in yards per carry, averaging just 2.73.
Utah (+14) vs. USC: The Trojans are playing a night-game at Rice-Eccles on a Thursday after a week off. Utah presents some of the same challenges Stanford did for USC. They have a physical defensive front squaring off against a soft USC offensive line. They are stout against the run and can get to the quarterback. The Utes’ offensive output this season has been quite poor. That’s a product, though, of playing three Top 10 yards per play defenses already, BYU, Arizona State and Utah State.
Texas Tech (+6) vs. Oklahoma: What have we seen to suggest Oklahoma should be favored in this game? The Sooners’ offensive line is a liability. Texas Tech has a vastly improved defensive front. The Red Raiders have not played anyone, but the teams they have played have gained no traction. Texas Tech has allowed just 2.61 yards per carry (9th nationally). They lead the country in yards per attempt and passer rating against.
Illinois (+14) vs. Wisconsin: Can Wisconsin beat any team by more than 14 points? The one thing Illinois does effectively is stop the run, which foils the Badgers’ offense. Illinois has killed itself with turnovers with 12 in their last three FBS games. Wisconsin is 118th in the country with three turnovers generated through five games. Illinois keeps things competitive.
Ole Miss (+12) vs. Texas A&M: We like home dogs in the SEC, especially against a mostly untested freshman quarterback. Texas A&M will look better on paper, with wins over SMU, South Carolina State and a moribund Arkansas team. Ole Miss will look worse, after facing Texas and Alabama. Despite those games, however, the Rebels still have a Top 40 yards per play defense vs. FBS. They were able to move the ball against Alabama. This is a game they need to steal, if they want to reach a bowl game.
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