We are looking to bounce back from a mediocre 3-3 mark last week that kept us at 20-15-1 ATS for the season. Here is who we like for Week Seven. (Can’t believe it is already Week Seven). Four out of six are home dogs as we move to the business portion of the season.
Iowa State (+6.5) vs. Kansas State: Two plucky teams meet. Expect Kansas State to get out-plucked. The Cyclones have been underrated. Until last week it was just Ray Ratto manning the bandwagon. They are always a tough out in Ames. Kansas State has been blowing teams away, but this defense is much better than Miami or Kansas. Iowa State is 16th nationally in yards allowed per play, adept against both the run and the pass. We could be cruising for another epic post-game speech.
Texas Tech (+4) vs. West Virginia: Texas Tech got blown out by Oklahoma last week, you say? Take a closer look. The teams were dead even statistically. The difference was turnovers. Seth Doege threw three picks and was sacked on a fourth down conversion. This Texas Tech team should execute better. This game is in Lubbock. WVU is flying across the country for the second-straight week. Texas Tech is still fifth in yards per play defense. The Mountaineers could only manage one-score wins against Baylor and Texas.
Texas (+3.5) vs. Oklahoma: Following that line of thought…Oklahoma is overvalued. We’re at the point where we must pat Landry Jones on the head every time he completes 60 percent of his passes without interception. Texas is undervalued. They did a lot of things well against West Virginia, getting pressure on Geno Smith and stopping 9/12 third down conversion attempts. It was the failure to convert a turnover into points late that cost them the win. Texas has the defensive front to rattle Jones. They will move the ball against a soft Oklahoma defense (80th in yards per carry vs. FBS). Texas will be out for vengeance after last week’s loss and last year’s blowout.
Vanderbilt (+8.5) vs. Florida: Vandy is a home dog in the SEC. This could not be more of a trap game for Florida. The Gators survived a grim battle with LSU and can’t help but look ahead to South Carolina and Georgia the two weeks afterward. The Commodores have momentum, pulling off a big (for them) win over Missouri on the road. They have played just one of their four FBS games at home, where they played South Carolina well in a 17-13 defeat. Franklin does not pull off the upset here, but this could be a 20-14 type game where Florida shuts it down at halftime.
Louisiana Tech (+7.5) vs. Texas A&M We love Texas A&M. More precisely, we love watching Texas A&M. We don’t trust Johnny Football and Co to produce a coherent 60 minutes against bellicose opposition. Sonny Dykes’ Bulldogs are off to a 5-0 start, with two AQ roads wins against Virginia and Illinois. This is not a one season phenomenon. They went 8-5 last year, but that included one-score losses at Southern Miss, vs. Houston, at Mississippi State and against TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl. This game is in Shreveport at night. Tech covers in what should be a back and forth shootout.
Buffalo (+14) at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois is 5-1 and Buffalo is 1-4. No question the Huskies are a better team overall, but they are near statistical equals rushing and stopping the run. That’s the basis of both of their offenses. Public confidence is low on Buffalo, after they came out flat in a weird MACtion Wednesday, but they have acquitted themselves well and covered on three road trips this year: at Georgia, at Connecticut and at Ohio. The Bulls keep it close.
[Photo via Presswire]